Viewing archive of Wednesday, 14 November 2001

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Nov 14 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 318 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Nov 2001

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Region 9690 (S17W48) produced several minor C-class flares, the largest being a C5/Sf at 14/0924Z. This region continues to decay in size and has simplified somewhat in magnetic complexity. A C5 flare was observed on the SW limb at 14/1802Z. Region 9697 (N12E34) produced occasional minor C-class flares this period, including a C2/1f flare at 14/0102Z. Five new regions were numbered today: Region 9702 (N22W07), 9703 (N22E12), 9704 (S18E70), 9705 (N14E49), and 9706 (N15E65).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate. Region 9690 still maintains potential for M-class activity and an isolated major flare. Region 9697 has a slight chance of producing an M-class event.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled.
III. Event Probabilities 15 Nov to 17 Nov
Class M80%80%75%
Class X25%25%25%
Proton15%15%15%
PCAFyellow
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       14 Nov 217
  Predicted   15 Nov-17 Nov  220/220/215
  90 Day Mean        14 Nov 215
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 13 Nov  004/003
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 14 Nov  005/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 15 Nov-17 Nov  010/010-010/010-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Nov to 17 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%20%20%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

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