Viewing archive of Wednesday, 14 November 2001
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Nov 14 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 318 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Nov 2001IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
Solar activity was low. Region 9690 (S17W48) produced
several minor C-class flares, the largest being a C5/Sf at 14/0924Z.
This region continues to decay in size and has simplified somewhat
in magnetic complexity. A C5 flare was observed on the SW limb at
14/1802Z. Region 9697 (N12E34) produced occasional minor C-class
flares this period, including a C2/1f flare at 14/0102Z. Five new
regions were numbered today: Region 9702 (N22W07), 9703 (N22E12),
9704 (S18E70), 9705 (N14E49), and 9706 (N15E65).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate. Region 9690 still maintains potential for M-class activity
and an isolated major flare. Region 9697 has a slight chance of
producing an M-class event.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled.
III. Event Probabilities 15 Nov to 17 Nov
| Class M | 80% | 80% | 75% |
| Class X | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Proton | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Nov 217 Predicted 15 Nov-17 Nov 220/220/215 90 Day Mean 14 Nov 215
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Nov 004/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Nov 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Nov-17 Nov 010/010-010/010-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Nov to 17 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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