Viewing archive of Sunday, 28 October 2001
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Oct 28 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 301 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Oct 2001IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z Solar activity has been moderate. Region 9682 (N12E32)
produced three M-class events during the period. Regions 9672
(S18W67) and 9678 (N07W21) are both complex regions and possess a
beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration. Region 9684 (N06E69) has
more than tripled its area since yesterday and now has an area
coverage of 510 millionths with ten spots visible.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. An isolated major flare is possible from Regions 9672,
9678 and 9682.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to major storm conditions. A
shock passed the ACE spacecraft at 28/0242 UTC and created a sudden
impulse of 33 nt at the Earth at 28/0318 UTC. This shock is
believed to be associated with the CME from 25 October.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled. Isolated active conditions are
possible for 29 October.
III. Event Probabilities 29 Oct to 31 Oct
| Class M | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| Class X | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Proton | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 28 Oct 227 Predicted 29 Oct-31 Oct 230/230/225 90 Day Mean 28 Oct 200
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Oct 006/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Oct 035/035 Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Oct-31 Oct 012/015-010/010-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Oct to 31 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
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