Viewing archive of Saturday, 13 October 2001

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Oct 13 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 286 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Oct 2001

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z

Solar activity was low. The largest flare was a C5/Sf at 13/0523 UTC in Region 9658 (S15E18). Other activity was inconsequential. Region 9661 (N15E42) is the largest, most complex active region on the disk as a moderately-large, beta-delta sunspot group. However the group has yet to produce significant activity. New Region 9665 (S26W57) was numbered.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. C-class flares should continue and M-class flares are possible. Region 9661 appears to have potential for an isolated major flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active over the past 24 hours, although quiet to unsettled conditions have prevailed for most of the UTC day of 13 October.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled.
III. Event Probabilities 14 Oct to 16 Oct
Class M40%40%40%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       13 Oct 180
  Predicted   14 Oct-16 Oct  185/190/195
  90 Day Mean        13 Oct 184
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 12 Oct  018/027
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 13 Oct  010/010
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 14 Oct-16 Oct  008/010-008/008-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Oct to 16 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%10%10%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%20%20%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

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