Viewing archive of Thursday, 11 October 2001
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Oct 11 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 284 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Oct 2001IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 9657 (N19E23) produced
a C4/SF flare at 11/0412 UTC. Region 9661 (N16E69) also produced
minor C-class flares. Limb proximity still hinders a more thorough
analysis, but this region does appear to be a moderately complex
group nearing 500 millionths of white light area. New Region 9662
(N09E42) and Region 9663 (S13E67) were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to at low
to moderate levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z
Geomagnetic activity was at quiet to minor storm levels. Quiet to
unsettled conditions persisted until 11/1700 UTC when a 11 nT sudden
impulse was observed. Active to minor storming conditions have
persisted since the shock which is believed to be associated with
the 09/1113 UTC M1/2f flare and CME.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic activity is
expected to be at unsettled to minor storming levels with isolated
major storm conditions through day one. Unsettled to active
conditions are expected on days two and three as a coronal hole
rotates into geoeffective position.
III. Event Probabilities 12 Oct to 14 Oct
| Class M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 Oct 175 Predicted 12 Oct-14 Oct 170/170/170 90 Day Mean 11 Oct 183
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Oct 006/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Oct 020/022 Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Oct-14 Oct 025/020-015/015-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Oct to 14 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 50% | 45% | 45% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 30% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 45% | 45% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 35% | 35% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 20% | 15% |
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