Viewing archive of Thursday, 11 October 2001

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Oct 11 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 284 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Oct 2001

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Region 9657 (N19E23) produced a C4/SF flare at 11/0412 UTC. Region 9661 (N16E69) also produced minor C-class flares. Limb proximity still hinders a more thorough analysis, but this region does appear to be a moderately complex group nearing 500 millionths of white light area. New Region 9662 (N09E42) and Region 9663 (S13E67) were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to at low to moderate levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z
Geomagnetic activity was at quiet to minor storm levels. Quiet to unsettled conditions persisted until 11/1700 UTC when a 11 nT sudden impulse was observed. Active to minor storming conditions have persisted since the shock which is believed to be associated with the 09/1113 UTC M1/2f flare and CME.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic activity is expected to be at unsettled to minor storming levels with isolated major storm conditions through day one. Unsettled to active conditions are expected on days two and three as a coronal hole rotates into geoeffective position.
III. Event Probabilities 12 Oct to 14 Oct
Class M 40%40%40%
Class X 05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       11 Oct 175
  Predicted    12 Oct-14 Oct  170/170/170
  90 Day Mean        11 Oct 183
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 10 Oct  006/008
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 11 Oct  020/022
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 12 Oct-14 Oct  025/020-015/015-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Oct to 14 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active50%45%45%
Minor storm 30%30%25%
Major-severe storm 15%15%10%
B. High Latitudes
Active45%45%40%
Minor storm 35%35%30%
Major-severe storm 20%20%15%

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