Viewing archive of Sunday, 7 October 2001
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Oct 07 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 280 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Oct 2001IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z Solar activity was at low levels. Only a few minor
C-class flares occurred during the period. One event of note, was a
12 degree filament (centered at S21E12) that erupted between 07/1643
and 1651 UTC. An associated long duration C2 x-ray flare and an
optical sub flare occurred in the area of the filament's eruption.
LASCO/EIT imagery has not updated sufficiently, to be able to
ascertain at this time, if a Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) was created
from the disappearing solar filament (DSF). Due to the central
location of the DSF, an accompanying CME could very possibly be
geoeffective. Two new regions were numbered: 9655 (S21E52) and 9656
(S21W13).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
mostly low levels. Isolated M-class events are possible.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux
at geosynchronous orbit remained at elevated levels but below the
proton event threshold of 10 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet to unsettled. Active conditions are
possible on the second day of the forecast due to a small recurrent
coronal hole and its associated high speed stream.
III. Event Probabilities 08 Oct to 10 Oct
| Class M | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 Oct 173 Predicted 08 Oct-10 Oct 170/175/175 90 Day Mean 07 Oct 182
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Oct 006/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Oct 004/004 Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Oct-10 Oct 008/010-015/015-012/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Oct to 10 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 25% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 30% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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