Viewing archive of Friday, 14 September 2001

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Sep 14 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 257 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Sep 2001

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Several C-class flares occurred during the period. A long duration C5/Sf was observed from Region 9608 (S28W44) at 14/1848 UTC. This region has grown slightly in area and spot count since yesterday and retains its beta-gamma magnetic classification. Also of interest are Regions 9610 (S14W31) and 9616 (S10E44), both are magnetically complex and possess a beta-gamma configuration.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. There is a chance for a major flare from Regions 9608, 9610, and 9616.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled. A weak shock was observed by the ACE spacecraft at approximately 14/0120 UTC. This activity is possibly the result of the DSF activity of 11 September.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled. Active conditions are possible on 16 September as a result of the flares on 12 September.
III. Event Probabilities 15 Sep to 17 Sep
Class M70%70%70%
Class X15%15%15%
Proton10%10%10%
PCAFyellow
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       14 Sep 237
  Predicted   15 Sep-17 Sep  235/230/225
  90 Day Mean        14 Sep 165
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 13 Sep  011/018
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 14 Sep  010/010
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 15 Sep-17 Sep  012/012-015/015-012/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Sep to 17 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%20%20%
Minor storm15%15%15%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%25%25%
Minor storm15%15%15%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%

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