Viewing archive of Friday, 14 September 2001
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Sep 14 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 257 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Sep 2001IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z Solar activity was low. Several C-class flares
occurred during the period. A long duration C5/Sf was observed from
Region 9608 (S28W44) at 14/1848 UTC. This region has grown slightly
in area and spot count since yesterday and retains its beta-gamma
magnetic classification. Also of interest are Regions 9610 (S14W31)
and 9616 (S10E44), both are magnetically complex and possess a
beta-gamma configuration.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. There is a chance for a major flare from Regions 9608,
9610, and 9616.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled. A weak shock was
observed by the ACE spacecraft at approximately 14/0120 UTC. This
activity is possibly the result of the DSF activity of 11 September.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled. Active conditions are possible
on 16 September as a result of the flares on 12 September.
III. Event Probabilities 15 Sep to 17 Sep
| Class M | 70% | 70% | 70% |
| Class X | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Sep 237 Predicted 15 Sep-17 Sep 235/230/225 90 Day Mean 14 Sep 165
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Sep 011/018 Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Sep 010/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Sep-17 Sep 012/012-015/015-012/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Sep to 17 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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