Viewing archive of Tuesday, 22 May 2001
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 May 22 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 142 Issued at 2200Z on 22 May 2001IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z Solar activity was very low. No significant activity of
note was observed. Region 9463 (N10E18), the largest active region
on the visible disk, is still undergoing some changes but exhibits
moderate complexity at best. Two new regions were numbered today -
9469 (N08W71) and 9470 (S15W19).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low.
Region 9463 is the only region showing potential for an isolated
M-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux was at mostly moderate levels this period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to active. Active periods are possible due to
high speed coronal hole effects and a possible glancing blow from a
CME observed on 20 May.
III. Event Probabilities 23 May to 25 May
| Class M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 May 152 Predicted 23 May-25 May 160/160/165 90 Day Mean 22 May 168
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 May 003/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 22 May 005/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 23 May-25 May 015/018-010/012-010/018
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 May to 25 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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