Viewing archive of Saturday, 5 May 2001
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 May 05 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 125 Issued at 2200Z on 05 May 2001IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z Solar activity was moderate. Region 9445 (N24W16)
produced an M1/1f flare at 0856 UTC. This was the sole M-class event
during this mostly uneventful day. The region also generated a C6/Sf
flare a few hours later, attaining maximum at 1820 UTC. There are
currently eight spotted regions now visible, with 9445 and 9447
(N12W55) the most dominant. The limbs were quiet.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to low to
moderate. Region 9445 may produce occasional M-class events during
the forecast interval.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field should be
unsettled for the next three days. There is a chance for brief
periods of active conditions due to a high speed solar wind stream
from an ill-defined coronal hole in the western solar hemisphere.
III. Event Probabilities 06 May to 08 May
| Class M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 May 161 Predicted 06 May-08 May 150/145/140 90 Day Mean 05 May 169
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 May 005/009 Estimated Afr/Ap 05 May 007/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 06 May-08 May 010/008-010/008-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 May to 08 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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