Viewing archive of Wednesday, 2 May 2001

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 May 02 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 122 Issued at 2200Z on 02 May 2001

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z

Solar activity was moderate due to a single M-class event during the period. This was an M1 x-ray flare that occurred at 02/0040 UTC. This event coincided with an eruptive prominence on the northwest limb, most likely originating from Region 9433 (N19W90+). Regions 9441 (N07W29) and 9445 (N25E23) were both active during the period, producing C-class x-ray events and optical flares. Region 9445 also showed significant growth in the number of sunspots today (28 to 40). Two new regions were numbered: 9448 (N22E60) and 9449 (S15E69).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. Region 9441 and 9445 are capable of producing isolated M-class events during the forecast period.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet to unsettled with isolated active periods possible, due to favorably positioned coronal holes.
III. Event Probabilities 03 May to 05 May
Class M50%50%50%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       02 May 176
  Predicted   03 May-05 May  175/170/165
  90 Day Mean        02 May 169
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 01 May  003/004
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 02 May  005/010
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 03 May-05 May  010/015-015/015-012/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 May to 05 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%20%20%
Minor storm15%15%15%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

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