Viewing archive of Thursday, 26 April 2001
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Apr 26 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 116 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Apr 2001IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z Solar activity has been high. Region 9433 (N17W25)
produced an M7/2b flare at 26/1312 UTC. This event had an
associated 360 sfu 10 cm radio burst, Type II and Type IV radio
sweeps, and a full halo coronal mass ejection (CME) observed by the
SOHO/LASCO spacecraft. The region continues to maintain a complex
beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration. Three new regions were
numbered today as Region 9440 (N07E18), 9441 (N08E51), and 9442
(N28E59).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate to high. Isolated X-class flares are possible from Region
9433.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled for 27 and 28 April. Minor storm
conditions are possible on 29 April as a result of the CME activity
observed today.
III. Event Probabilities 27 Apr to 29 Apr
| Class M | 80% | 80% | 80% |
| Class X | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Proton | 30% | 20% | 20% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 26 Apr 196 Predicted 27 Apr-29 Apr 205/210/210 90 Day Mean 26 Apr 167
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Apr 007/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Apr 010/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Apr-29 Apr 010/010-010/010-040/040
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Apr to 29 Apr
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 40% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 30% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 40% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 30% |
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