Viewing archive of Thursday, 26 April 2001

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Apr 26 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 116 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Apr 2001

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z

Solar activity has been high. Region 9433 (N17W25) produced an M7/2b flare at 26/1312 UTC. This event had an associated 360 sfu 10 cm radio burst, Type II and Type IV radio sweeps, and a full halo coronal mass ejection (CME) observed by the SOHO/LASCO spacecraft. The region continues to maintain a complex beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration. Three new regions were numbered today as Region 9440 (N07E18), 9441 (N08E51), and 9442 (N28E59).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate to high. Isolated X-class flares are possible from Region 9433.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled for 27 and 28 April. Minor storm conditions are possible on 29 April as a result of the CME activity observed today.
III. Event Probabilities 27 Apr to 29 Apr
Class M80%80%80%
Class X25%25%25%
Proton30%20%20%
PCAFyellow
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       26 Apr 196
  Predicted   27 Apr-29 Apr  205/210/210
  90 Day Mean        26 Apr 167
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 25 Apr  007/007
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 26 Apr  010/010
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 27 Apr-29 Apr  010/010-010/010-040/040
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Apr to 29 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%20%30%
Minor storm05%05%40%
Major-severe storm01%01%30%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%25%30%
Minor storm05%05%40%
Major-severe storm01%01%30%

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