Viewing archive of Friday, 30 March 2001
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Mar 30 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 089 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Mar 2001IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z Solar activity has been moderate to high. Region 9393
(N17 W30) has produced three M-class flares since 30/0000 UTC. The
region remains large, complex, and threatening to produce more Class
X events.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to remain
high. Region 9393 remains the center of a complex likely to
produce M-Class events with a very good chance of one or more Class
X events over the next three days as the region moves away from
central meridian but remains in a prime location to produce strong
to severe effects at Earth. Over a dozen sunspot groups are
visible and may produce Class M events.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z
Activity in the geomagnetic field has been unsettled the past 24
hours. Some discontinuity was observed at the ACE spacecraft and at
Earth between 30/1800 UTC and 30/1900 UTC. The event appeared to be
small and is likely the result of solar activity prior to 29 March.
The small proton event that began at 29/1000 UTC reached a
maximum flux of 35 pfu in the >30 MeV GOES detector and remains
above 10 pfu today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Effects from CME's from the
events on 29 March are expected to begin early on 31 March. Model
runs predict an earlier arrival at Earth late on 30 March. ACE
energetic protons are rising slowly indicating the disturbance is
still some distance away at 30/2100 UT. Any geomagnetic storm that
results is expected to range from minor to major. The small >30 MeV
proton event in progress is expected to continue its slow decline
with a chance of an enhancement with the passage of the
interplanetary shock. Major activity from Region 9393 may well
produce additional proton events and geomagnetic activity at Earth.
III. Event Probabilities 31 Mar to 02 Apr
| Class M | 80% | 80% | 80% |
| Class X | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Proton | 99% | 30% | 30% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 30 Mar 257 Predicted 31 Mar-02 Apr 255/250/245 90 Day Mean 30 Mar 163
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Mar 017/022 Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Mar 014/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 31 Mar-02 Apr 045/050-045/050-025/030
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Mar to 02 Apr
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 40% | 40% | 17% |
| Major-severe storm | 52% | 50% | 50% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 40% | 40% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 50% | 50% | 35% |
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