Viewing archive of Wednesday, 21 March 2001
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Mar 21 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 080 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Mar 2001IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 9373 (S07W82) produced
two M-class events. The first was an M1 at 20/2104 UTC with an
associated Type II radio sweep. This event was confirmed by visual
observation from the Sacramento Peak Observatory. The second event
was an M1/0n at 21/0237 UTC. Two new regions were numbered today as
Region 9391(S04W15) and 9392 (N20W17).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to major storm conditions. Since
21/0300 UTC the geomagnetic field has been predominately quiet to
unsettled conditions.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active. Effects from a high speed
coronal hole stream are expected early in the three day period.
Higher levels of activity are also possible as a result of the
recent CME occurrences.
III. Event Probabilities 22 Mar to 24 Mar
| Class M | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 21 Mar 159 Predicted 22 Mar-24 Mar 155/150/140 90 Day Mean 21 Mar 159
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Mar 027/066 Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Mar 010/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Mar-24 Mar 025/020-015/018-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Mar to 24 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 50% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 60% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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