Viewing archive of Sunday, 11 March 2001

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Mar 11 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 070 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Mar 2001

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z

Solar activity was at low levels. The largest event of the period was a C5 flare at 11/0856Z. Activity was observed in newly numbered Region 9376 (S13E72), and in Region 9368 (N25W73) during this X-ray event. Region 9376 produced additional minor C-class flares. The level of activity in active Regions 9368 and 9372 (S16w76) tapered off considerably this period as both regions approach the west limb. New Region 9377 (S10E01) was also numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. An isolated M-class flare is still possible from Regions 9368 or 9372 as they rotate around the west limb. An isolated M-class is also possible from newly numbered Region 9376, and Region 9373 (S08E48) as it continues to slowly develop.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. The greater than 2 MeV electrons continue at moderately enhanced levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to continue at quiet to unsettled levels.
III. Event Probabilities 12 Mar to 14 Mar
Class M 50%50%50%
Class X 05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       11 Mar 158
  Predicted    12 Mar-14 Mar  155/150/145
  90 Day Mean        11 Mar 163
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 10 Mar  003/005
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 11 Mar  005/005
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 12 Mar-14 Mar  008/008-007/007-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Mar to 14 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%20%20%
Minor storm 05%05%05%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%25%25%
Minor storm 05%05%05%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%

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