Viewing archive of Wednesday, 7 March 2001
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Mar 07 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 066 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Mar 2001IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z Solar activity has been low, though there has been a
modest increase in flare activity. The largest event of the day was
a C7/Sf from Region 9368 (N25W20) at 07/1927 UTC, and was in
progress at the time of today's 10cm flux observation. As a result,
the 10cm flux was moderately enhanced by perhaps 10 sfu. A long
duration event also occurred today, a C5/Sf from Region 9371
(N21W79) at 07/1502 UTC. Regions 9368 and 9371 exhibited further
growth in areal coverage, and produced several lesser C-Class
flares, as did Regions 9165 (S10W62) and 9170 (N09E00).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. The greatest chance for isolated M-class activity
exists for Region 9368, and for Region 9371 as it rotates beyond the
west limb within the next 24 hours.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was predominantly quiet to unsettled, with one
isolated active period observed at Boulder during 08/1200-1500 UTC.
The greater-than-2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
moderate levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mainly quiet to unsettled for the next three days,
barring an earth-directed CME.
III. Event Probabilities 08 Mar to 10 Mar
| Class M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 Mar 177 Predicted 08 Mar-10 Mar 165/165/165 90 Day Mean 07 Mar 162
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Mar 004/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Mar 007/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Mar-10 Mar 007/008-005/007-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Mar to 10 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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