Viewing archive of Wednesday, 7 March 2001

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Mar 07 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 066 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Mar 2001

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z

Solar activity has been low, though there has been a modest increase in flare activity. The largest event of the day was a C7/Sf from Region 9368 (N25W20) at 07/1927 UTC, and was in progress at the time of today's 10cm flux observation. As a result, the 10cm flux was moderately enhanced by perhaps 10 sfu. A long duration event also occurred today, a C5/Sf from Region 9371 (N21W79) at 07/1502 UTC. Regions 9368 and 9371 exhibited further growth in areal coverage, and produced several lesser C-Class flares, as did Regions 9165 (S10W62) and 9170 (N09E00).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. The greatest chance for isolated M-class activity exists for Region 9368, and for Region 9371 as it rotates beyond the west limb within the next 24 hours.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was predominantly quiet to unsettled, with one isolated active period observed at Boulder during 08/1200-1500 UTC. The greater-than-2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached moderate levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be mainly quiet to unsettled for the next three days, barring an earth-directed CME.
III. Event Probabilities 08 Mar to 10 Mar
Class M 30%30%30%
Class X 01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       07 Mar 177
  Predicted    08 Mar-10 Mar  165/165/165
  90 Day Mean        07 Mar 162
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 06 Mar  004/006
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 07 Mar  007/008
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 08 Mar-10 Mar  007/008-005/007-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Mar to 10 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%15%15%
Minor storm 05%01%01%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%15%15%
Minor storm 05%01%01%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%

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