Viewing archive of Tuesday, 6 March 2001

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Mar 06 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 065 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Mar 2001

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z

Solar activity has been low. The largest event of the day was an optically uncorrelated C6 flare at 06/1013 UTC. SOHO/LASCO data suggest an association with the most energetic phase of a CME observed off the west limb, though not appearing earth-directed. Several lesser C-class events occurred throughout the day, with three observed from Region 9368 (N25W08), which underwent some growth in spot count and areal coverage, but without significant change in magnetic complexity. Region 9371 (N20W64) exhibited similar growth, but produced only two subfaint optical flares without notable x-ray enhancements. Region 9370 showed some increase in size and complexity, but has remained quiet so far, along with the other numbered regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be predominantly low for the next three days, though a chance for isolated moderate (weak M-class) activity exists principally for Region 9368.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled. Solar wind speed remains somewhat elevated, but recent effects from a coronal hole high speed stream appear to have waned over the course of the day.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled, with isolated active conditions possible for the next 24 hours, until coronal hole effects have completely subsided. Mainly quiet to unsettled conditions are expected thereafter for the remainder of the forecast period.
III. Event Probabilities 07 Mar to 09 Mar
Class M30%30%30%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       06 Mar 158
  Predicted   07 Mar-09 Mar  162/165/165
  90 Day Mean        06 Mar 162
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 05 Mar  019/018
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 06 Mar  008/008
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 07 Mar-09 Mar  008/008-007/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Mar to 09 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%15%15%
Minor storm05%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%15%15%
Minor storm10%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

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