Viewing archive of Sunday, 18 February 2001
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Feb 18 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 049 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Feb 2001IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 9354 (S09E07) continued
to show minor growth in area and spots since yesterday. New Regions
9355 (N19E35), 9356 (S13W10), 9357 (S25E34), and 9358 (S08E46) were
numbered.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electrons at
geosynchronous orbit reached high levels briefly during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet with periods of unsettled conditions
possible.
III. Event Probabilities 19 Feb to 21 Feb
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 18 Feb 132 Predicted 19 Feb-21 Feb 135/135/140 90 Day Mean 18 Feb 170
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Feb 002/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Feb 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Feb-21 Feb 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Feb to 21 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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