Viewing archive of Monday, 5 February 2001
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Feb 05 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 036 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Feb 2001IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 9335 (N08E40) produced a
C8/1F at 05/1520Z. Minor centimetric radio bursts and a Type II
sweep accompanied this flare. Minor C-class flares were also
observed in Regions 9327 (N19W73) and 9334 (N12E27). Moderate growth
in the size and complexity of Region 9339 (S11E62) was also noted.
New Region 9340 (S13E05) was numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to continue
at low levels. There is a chance for an isolated M flare in Regions
9334 and 9339.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled, as effects from a high speed
coronal hole stream are expected early in the three day period.
III. Event Probabilities 06 Feb to 08 Feb
| Class M | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 Feb 165 Predicted 06 Feb-08 Feb 168/170/175 90 Day Mean 05 Feb 171
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Feb 001/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Feb 002/003 Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Feb-08 Feb 010/007-007/010-005/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Feb to 08 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 35% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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