Viewing archive of Saturday, 3 February 2001
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Feb 03 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 034 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Feb 2001IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z Solar activity became moderate. Region 9334 (N11E54)
produced an M2/1f flare at 3/0006Z. Small centimetric radio bursts,
a Type II and IV radio sweep, and a CME accompanied this flare. The
only other activity of note was a long duration C1 flare and CME
that appeared to originate from regions near the NE limb. New
Regions 9335 (N08E68). 9336 (S10W01), and 9337 (S27E76), were also
numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low.
Regions 9330 (N26E18) and 9334 (N11E54) still have potential for an
isolated M class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet, but trending towards unsettled
conditions late in the three day period as a coronal hole moves into
a geoeffectively favorable position. Ejecta from today's CME's do
not appear earthbound.
III. Event Probabilities 04 Feb to 06 Feb
| Class M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 Feb 164 Predicted 04 Feb-06 Feb 170/175/175 90 Day Mean 03 Feb 171
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Feb 003/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Feb 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Feb-06 Feb 007/008-007/012-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Feb to 06 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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