Viewing archive of Saturday, 2 September 2000

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Sep 02 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 246 Issued at 2200Z on 02 SEP 2000

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. THERE WAS ONLY ONE C-CLASS FLARE TODAY, A C2 AT 0340Z WHICH WAS NOT OBSERVED OPTICALLY. REGION 9149 (N12E06) IS THE LARGEST GROUP ON THE DISK BUT CONTINUES TO BE VERY STABLE AND QUIET. NINE DEGREES OF A FILAMENT NEAR S33W21 DISAPPEARED BETWEEN 0046-1150Z.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS, ALTHOUGH THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENT FROM REGION 9149. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY 01/2100Z TO 02/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS MOSTLY UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE. THERE WAS A MINOR STORM PERIOD FROM 0900-1200Z. THE ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE A RESULT OF AN ONGOING HIGH-SPEED CORONAL HOLE WIND STREAM. SOLAR WIND OBSERVATIONS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE SLOW DECLINE OF THIS HIGH SPEED STREAM. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUXES EXCEEDED HIGH LEVELS DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY UNSETTLED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS, ALTHOUGH LOCAL NIGHTTIME SECTORS MAY EXPERIENCE SOME ACTIVE PERIODS. PREDOMINANTLY UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR THE SECOND AND THIRD DAYS OF THE FORECAST.
III. Event Probabilities 03 SEP to 05 SEP
Class M20%20%20%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       02 SEP 154
  Predicted   03 SEP-05 SEP  155/155/165
  90 Day Mean        02 SEP 181
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 01 SEP  012/017
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 02 SEP  025/025
PREDICTED AFR/AP 03 SEP-05 SEP  015/015-012/012-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 SEP to 05 SEP
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%30%25%
Minor storm20%15%10%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active35%30%25%
Minor storm25%15%10%
Major-severe storm10%05%05%

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