Viewing archive of Saturday, 2 September 2000
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Sep 02 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 246 Issued at 2200Z on 02 SEP 2000IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. THERE WAS ONLY ONE C-CLASS
FLARE TODAY, A C2 AT 0340Z WHICH WAS NOT OBSERVED OPTICALLY. REGION
9149 (N12E06) IS THE LARGEST GROUP ON THE DISK BUT CONTINUES TO BE
VERY STABLE AND QUIET. NINE DEGREES OF A FILAMENT NEAR S33W21
DISAPPEARED BETWEEN 0046-1150Z.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS, ALTHOUGH THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AN
ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENT FROM REGION 9149.
IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY 01/2100Z TO 02/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS MOSTLY UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE. THERE WAS A
MINOR STORM PERIOD FROM 0900-1200Z. THE ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE A
RESULT OF AN ONGOING HIGH-SPEED CORONAL HOLE WIND STREAM. SOLAR WIND
OBSERVATIONS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE SLOW DECLINE OF THIS HIGH
SPEED STREAM. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUXES EXCEEDED HIGH
LEVELS DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY UNSETTLED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS, ALTHOUGH
LOCAL NIGHTTIME SECTORS MAY EXPERIENCE SOME ACTIVE PERIODS.
PREDOMINANTLY UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR THE
SECOND AND THIRD DAYS OF THE FORECAST.
III. Event Probabilities 03 SEP to 05 SEP
| Class M | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 02 SEP 154 Predicted 03 SEP-05 SEP 155/155/165 90 Day Mean 02 SEP 181
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 01 SEP 012/017 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 02 SEP 025/025 PREDICTED AFR/AP 03 SEP-05 SEP 015/015-012/012-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 SEP to 05 SEP
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 30% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 30% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
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