Viewing archive of Sunday, 13 August 2000
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Aug 13 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 226 Issued at 2200Z on 13 AUG 2000IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. OCCASIONAL C-CLASS EVENTS
OCCURRED, THE LARGEST A C4/SF AT 1348Z FROM REGION 9125 (N25E29).
THIS GROUP IS THE MOST INTERESTING OF THE THIRTEEN SPOTTED REGIONS
VISIBLE, SHOWING SOME MAGNETIC COMPLEXITY AS WELL AS AN EXPANSE OF
BRIGHT PLAGE. PROMINENCE ACTIVITY WAS REPORTED AT THE NW LIMB MUCH
OF THE INTERVAL. NEW REGIONS 9130 (S23W13) AND 9131 (N13W71) WERE
ASSIGNED.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE.
IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY 12/2100Z TO 13/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS AT ACTIVE TO MINOR STORM CONDITIONS EARLY,
THEN QUIET TO UNSETTLED AFTER 0600Z. THE MAJOR STORM OF THE PAST FEW
DAYS SUBSIDED AS THE SOLAR WIND CALMED.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED TO MILDLY ACTIVE OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
LOCAL NIGHTTIME HOURS MAY STILL SEE SHORT-LIVED SUBSTORMS FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.
III. Event Probabilities 14 AUG to 16 AUG
| Class M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 AUG 186 Predicted 14 AUG-16 AUG 190/190/185 90 Day Mean 13 AUG 189
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 12 AUG 055/109 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 13 AUG 012/025 PREDICTED AFR/AP 14 AUG-16 AUG 010/015-010/015-015/018
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 AUG to 16 AUG
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 10% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 40% | 50% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 15% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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