Viewing archive of Wednesday, 2 August 2000
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Aug 02 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 215 Issued at 2200Z on 02 AUG 2000IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. THE MOST IMPRESSIVE EVENT OF
THE PERIOD WAS A C7 FLARE AND ASSOCIATED CME AT 02/0815Z FROM NEWLY
NUMBERED REGION 9114 (N10E77). REGION 9113 (S25W11) WAS ALSO
NUMBERED TODAY AND PRODUCED OCCASIONAL SMALL C-CLASS SUBFAINT FLARES
DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD. THIS REGION'S CLOSE PROXIMITY
TO REGION 9104 (S20W13) ADDS TO ITS COMPLEXITY AND FLARE POTENTIAL.
AN IMPRESSIVE PROMINENCE ERUPTION AND CME WAS OBSERVED OFF THE NE
LIMB BEGINNING AT AROUND 02/1700Z. REGION 9112 (N14W14) WAS ALSO
NUMBERED TODAY.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
AT LOW LEVELS WITH A TREND TOWARD INCREASING ACTIVITY. LIMB
PROXIMITY PREVENTS ACCURATE MAGNETIC ANALYSIS OF NEW REGION 9114,
BUT CONTINUED C-CLASS ACTIVITY APPEARS LIKELY. NEW REGION 9113 IS
ALSO EXPECTED TO PRODUCE C-CLASS EVENTS. THE RETURN OF OLD REGION
9077 ON THE NE LIMB IS EXPECTED NEXT PERIOD; HOWEVER, IT APPEARS
CONSIDERABLY SMALLER AND LESS COMPLEX THAN LAST ROTATION.
IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY 01/2100Z TO 02/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS MOSTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED WITH ONE ACTIVE
PERIOD BETWEEN 02/00 - 03Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE AT QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS. ISOLATED ACTIVE PERIODS
ARE LIKELY AT HIGH LATITUDES DURING LOCAL NIGHTTIME HOURS.
III. Event Probabilities 03 AUG to 05 AUG
| Class M | 30% | 35% | 35% |
| Class X | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 02 AUG 151 Predicted 03 AUG-05 AUG 155/165/180 90 Day Mean 02 AUG 189
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 01 AUG 011/015 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 02 AUG 012/012 PREDICTED AFR/AP 03 AUG-05 AUG 010/012-010/010-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 AUG to 05 AUG
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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