Viewing archive of Friday, 21 July 2000

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Jul 21 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 203 Issued at 2200Z on 21 JUL 2000

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN HIGH. THE MOST ENERGETIC EVENT WAS A CLASS M5 FLARE IN REGION 9090 (N11E06) AT 21/1430Z. REGION 9087 (S12W26) AND REGION 9090 HAVE PRODUCED MOST OF THE ACTIVITY, REGIONS 9087 AND 9090 ARE THE MOST COMPLEX REGIONS TODAY; BOTH HAVE DELTA MAGNETIC CONFIGURATIONS.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MODERATE TO HIGH WITH CLASS M FLARES LIKELY AND CLASS X FLARES POSSIBLE. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY 20/2100Z TO 21/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN ACTIVE. EFFECTS OF THE SOLAR ACTIVITY THAT OCCURRED ON 19 JULY AND 20 JULY HAVE NOT MATERIALIZED AT THIS TIME.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE AT ACTIVE TO MINOR STORM LEVELS OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS AS A RESULT OF EARLIER SOLAR ACTIVITY. ACE DATA INDICATE SOME STRUCTURES MAY STILL BE PROPAGATING IN INTERPLANETARY SPACE LEADING TO EXPECTATIONS FOR UNSETTLED TO MINOR STORM CONDITIONS.
III. Event Probabilities 22 JUL to 24 JUL
Class M 85%80%75%
Class X 35%30%20%
Proton35%30%20%
PCAFYELLOW
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       21 JUL 251
  Predicted    22 JUL-24 JUL  245/240/235
  90 Day Mean        21 JUL 189
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 20 JUL  028/043
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 21 JUL  010/012
PREDICTED AFR/AP 22 JUL-24 JUL  030/030-025/015-020/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 JUL to 24 JUL
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%30%30%
Minor storm 25%20%15%
Major-severe storm 22%12%12%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%30%30%
Minor storm 40%30%25%
Major-severe storm 27%22%12%

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