Viewing archive of Friday, 21 July 2000
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Jul 21 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 203 Issued at 2200Z on 21 JUL 2000IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN HIGH. THE MOST ENERGETIC EVENT
WAS A CLASS M5 FLARE IN REGION 9090 (N11E06) AT 21/1430Z. REGION
9087 (S12W26) AND REGION 9090 HAVE PRODUCED MOST OF THE ACTIVITY,
REGIONS 9087 AND 9090 ARE THE MOST COMPLEX REGIONS TODAY; BOTH HAVE
DELTA MAGNETIC CONFIGURATIONS.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
MODERATE TO HIGH WITH CLASS M FLARES LIKELY AND CLASS X FLARES
POSSIBLE.
IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY 20/2100Z TO 21/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN ACTIVE. EFFECTS OF THE SOLAR
ACTIVITY THAT OCCURRED ON 19 JULY AND 20 JULY HAVE NOT MATERIALIZED
AT THIS TIME.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO BE AT ACTIVE TO MINOR STORM LEVELS OVER THE NEXT 24 TO
48 HOURS AS A RESULT OF EARLIER SOLAR ACTIVITY. ACE DATA INDICATE
SOME STRUCTURES MAY STILL BE PROPAGATING IN INTERPLANETARY SPACE
LEADING TO EXPECTATIONS FOR UNSETTLED TO MINOR STORM CONDITIONS.
III. Event Probabilities 22 JUL to 24 JUL
| Class M | 85% | 80% | 75% |
| Class X | 35% | 30% | 20% |
| Proton | 35% | 30% | 20% |
| PCAF | YELLOW | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 21 JUL 251 Predicted 22 JUL-24 JUL 245/240/235 90 Day Mean 21 JUL 189
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 20 JUL 028/043 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 21 JUL 010/012 PREDICTED AFR/AP 22 JUL-24 JUL 030/030-025/015-020/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 JUL to 24 JUL
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 20% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 22% | 12% | 12% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 40% | 30% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 27% | 22% | 12% |
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