Viewing archive of Sunday, 16 July 2000
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Jul 16 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 198 Issued at 2200Z on 16 JUL 2000IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS HIGH. TWO M-CLASS X-RAY EVENTS
OCCURRED DURING THE PERIOD. REGION 9090 (N10E70) PRODUCED AN M5/1N
EVENT AT 16/0203Z. AN M1 OCCURRED AT 16/0228Z WITH NO OPTICAL
CORRELATION. REGION 9087 PRODUCED NUMEROUS MINOR C-CLASS ACTIVITY.
SEVERAL OTHER C-CLASS EVENTS WERE OPTICALLY UNCORRELATED. REGION
9077 (N18W36) APPEARS TO HAVE A BETA-GAMMA CONFIGURATION AND IS IN A
PERIOD OF SLOW DECAY. SIGNIFICANT GROWTH WAS REPORTED IN REGION
9085 (N14E20), AND NOW HAS A BETA-GAMMA MAGNETIC CONFIGURATION.
REGION 9087 (S13E44) ALSO SHOWED MODERATE GROWTH IN THE NUMBER OF
SUNSPOTS VISIBLE. NEW REGIONS 9090 AND 9091 (S07E69) WERE NUMBERED
TODAY.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
MODERATE TO HIGH. REGION 9077, 9085, 9087, AND 9090 ALL HAVE THE
CAPABILITY TO PRODUCE A MAJOR EVENT.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD RANGED FROM QUIET TO SEVERE STORM LEVELS.
MAJOR TO SEVERE STORM CONDITIONS DECREASED EARLY ON 16 JULY. THE
GREATER THAN 100 MEV PROTON EVENT THAT BEGAN 14/1040Z, PEAKED AT 410
PFU AT 14/1620Z, AND ENDED AT 16/0400Z. THE GREATER THAN 10 MEV
PROTON EVENT CONTINUES TO DECLINE FROM A PEAK OF 24000 PFU'S AT
15/1230Z AND IS CURRENTLY AROUND 180 PFU'S. THE PCA ASSOCIATED WITH
THE X5/3B ON 14 JULY PEAKED AT 15/1436Z WITH 49.0 DB AND IS STILL IN
PROGRESS. A MODERATE FORBUSH DECREASE CONTINUED THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WILL
CONTINUE TO DECREASE TO PREDOMINATELY QUIET TO UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
WITH THE CHANCE OF ISOLATED ACTIVE TO MINOR STORM LEVELS POSSIBLE
THE FIRST DAY.
III. Event Probabilities 17 JUL to 19 JUL
| Class M | 80% | 80% | 80% |
| Class X | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Proton | 99% | 99% | 99% |
| PCAF | IN PROGRESS | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 JUL 219 Predicted 17 JUL-19 JUL 215/215/210 90 Day Mean 16 JUL 185
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 15 JUL 148/152 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 16 JUL 035/055 PREDICTED AFR/AP 17 JUL-19 JUL 020/020-015/015-010/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 JUL to 19 JUL
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 30% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 20% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 50% | 40% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 40% | 25% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
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