Viewing archive of Sunday, 16 July 2000

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Jul 16 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 198 Issued at 2200Z on 16 JUL 2000

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS HIGH. TWO M-CLASS X-RAY EVENTS OCCURRED DURING THE PERIOD. REGION 9090 (N10E70) PRODUCED AN M5/1N EVENT AT 16/0203Z. AN M1 OCCURRED AT 16/0228Z WITH NO OPTICAL CORRELATION. REGION 9087 PRODUCED NUMEROUS MINOR C-CLASS ACTIVITY. SEVERAL OTHER C-CLASS EVENTS WERE OPTICALLY UNCORRELATED. REGION 9077 (N18W36) APPEARS TO HAVE A BETA-GAMMA CONFIGURATION AND IS IN A PERIOD OF SLOW DECAY. SIGNIFICANT GROWTH WAS REPORTED IN REGION 9085 (N14E20), AND NOW HAS A BETA-GAMMA MAGNETIC CONFIGURATION. REGION 9087 (S13E44) ALSO SHOWED MODERATE GROWTH IN THE NUMBER OF SUNSPOTS VISIBLE. NEW REGIONS 9090 AND 9091 (S07E69) WERE NUMBERED TODAY.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MODERATE TO HIGH. REGION 9077, 9085, 9087, AND 9090 ALL HAVE THE CAPABILITY TO PRODUCE A MAJOR EVENT. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 15/2100Z TO 16/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD RANGED FROM QUIET TO SEVERE STORM LEVELS. MAJOR TO SEVERE STORM CONDITIONS DECREASED EARLY ON 16 JULY. THE GREATER THAN 100 MEV PROTON EVENT THAT BEGAN 14/1040Z, PEAKED AT 410 PFU AT 14/1620Z, AND ENDED AT 16/0400Z. THE GREATER THAN 10 MEV PROTON EVENT CONTINUES TO DECLINE FROM A PEAK OF 24000 PFU'S AT 15/1230Z AND IS CURRENTLY AROUND 180 PFU'S. THE PCA ASSOCIATED WITH THE X5/3B ON 14 JULY PEAKED AT 15/1436Z WITH 49.0 DB AND IS STILL IN PROGRESS. A MODERATE FORBUSH DECREASE CONTINUED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE TO PREDOMINATELY QUIET TO UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WITH THE CHANCE OF ISOLATED ACTIVE TO MINOR STORM LEVELS POSSIBLE THE FIRST DAY.
III. Event Probabilities 17 JUL to 19 JUL
Class M 80%80%80%
Class X 35%35%35%
Proton99%99%99%
PCAFIN PROGRESS
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       16 JUL 219
  Predicted    17 JUL-19 JUL  215/215/210
  90 Day Mean        16 JUL 185
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 15 JUL  148/152
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 16 JUL  035/055
PREDICTED AFR/AP 17 JUL-19 JUL  020/020-015/015-010/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 JUL to 19 JUL
A. Middle Latitudes
Active40%30%25%
Minor storm 30%20%15%
Major-severe storm 10%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active50%40%35%
Minor storm 40%25%20%
Major-severe storm 10%10%10%

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