Viewing archive of Thursday, 13 July 2000
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Jul 13 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 195 Issued at 2200Z on 13 JUL 2000IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS HIGH. A TOTAL OF FIVE M1 X-RAY
EVENTS OCCURRED DURING THE PERIOD. THREE OF THE EVENTS WERE
PRODUCED BY REGION 9070 (N22W77), ONE CAME FROM REGION 9085
(N12E59), AND ONE WAS OPTICALLY UNCORRELATED. REGIONS 9070 AND 9077
(N17E03) HAVE MAINTAINED COMPLEX MAGNETIC DELTA CONFIGURATIONS.
SIGNIFICANT GROWTH OCCURRED IN REGION 9085 AND THE REGION NOW HAS A
BETA GAMMA MAGNETIC CONFIGURATION. NEW REGION 9086 (S10W40) WAS
NUMBERED TODAY.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
AT MODERATE TO HIGH LEVELS. NUMEROUS MINOR M-CLASS EVENTS ARE
EXPECTED FROM REGIONS 9070, 9077, OR 9085. ALSO, THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY OF A MAJOR FLARE EVENT FROM ANY OF THE THREE REGIONS
MENTIONED ABOVE.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS AT QUIET TO MAJOR STORM LEVELS. A SUDDEN
IMPULSE OCCURRED AT 13/0954Z (30 NT, AS MEASURED BY THE BOULDER USGS
MAGNETOMETER). THE SOLAR WIND VELOCITY JUMPED FROM 500 TO OVER 700
KM/S AROUND 13/0900Z MAJOR STORM LEVELS WERE OBSERVED FOLLOWING THE
SHOCK ARRIVAL. ONE PERIOD OF SEVERE STORM CONDITIONS WAS OBSERVED
IN THE HIGH LATITUDES FROM 13/1200-1500Z. THIS SHOCK IS PRESUMED TO
BE RELATED TO CME'S OBSERVED ON 10-11 JULY. THE GREATER THAN 10 MEV
PROTON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WAS ENHANCED DURING PERIOD. A
MODERATE (8.0 PERCENT) FORBUSH DECREASE STARTED AT APPROXIMATELY
13/1130Z AND IS STILL IN PROGRESS.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM QUIET TO ACTIVE WITH ISOLATED PERIODS OF
MINOR STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THE FIRST DAY. THE GEOMAGNETIC
FIELD IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH ON THE SECOND DAY AND BECOME QUIET TO
UNSETTLED WITH ISOLATED PERIODS OF ACTIVE CONDITIONS THE REMAINDER
OF THE PERIOD.
III. Event Probabilities 14 JUL to 16 JUL
| Class M | 80% | 80% | 80% |
| Class X | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Proton | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| PCAF | YELLOW | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 JUL 232 Predicted 14 JUL-16 JUL 230/225/210 90 Day Mean 13 JUL 183
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 12 JUL 012/012 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 13 JUL 030/030 PREDICTED AFR/AP 14 JUL-16 JUL 020/020-012/015-010/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 JUL to 16 JUL
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 60% | 30% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 50% | 35% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 35% | 25% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
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