Viewing archive of Friday, 23 June 2000
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Jun 23 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 175 Issued at 2200Z on 23 JUN 2000IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY INCREASED TO MODERATE LEVELS. REGION
9046 (N21W34) PRODUCED AN M2/2B FLARE AT 23/0407Z ASSOCIATED WITH A
240 SFU TENFLARE, AND TYPE II AND IV RADIO SWEEPS. REGION 9042
(N23W72) PRODUCED AN M3/1F FLARE AT 23/1431Z ASSOCIATED WITH A 250
SFU TENFLARE, TYPE II AND IV RADIO SWEEPS, AND A PARTIAL-HALO CME.
BOTH REGIONS SHOWED GRADUAL DECAY, BUT RETAINED MIXED-POLARITY
MAGNETIC STRUCTURES. THE REMAINING REGIONS WERE STABLE AND SIMPLY
STRUCTURED, INCLUDING NEWLY NUMBERED REGIONS 9058 (S14W15) AND 9059
(N14E30).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE AT
LOW TO MODERATE LEVELS. REGIONS 9042 AND 9046 MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED
M-CLASS FLARES.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z
GEOMAGNETIC FIELD ACTIVITY RANGED FROM QUIET TO MINOR STORM LEVELS. A
SUDDEN IMPULSE (SI) OCCURRED AT 23/1305Z WITH A MAGNITUDE OF 29
NANOTESLA (AS MEASURED BY THE BOULDER USGS MAGNETOMETER). ACTIVITY
INCREASED TO UNSETTLED TO MINOR STORM LEVELS FOLLOWING THE SI. A
PROTON ENHANCEMENT AT GREATER THAN 10 MEV BEGAN AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS
ORBIT AROUND 23/1600Z. THE ENHANCEMENT FOLLOWED THE M3/1F FROM
REGION 9042.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
GEOMAGNETIC FIELD ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT UNSETTLED TO MINOR STORM LEVELS THROUGH MOST
OF THE PERIOD. THE GREATER THAN 10 MEV PROTON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS
ORBIT IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO BACKGROUND LEVELS EARLY IN THE
PERIOD. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT
IS EXPECTED TO RISE TO MODERATE TO HIGH LEVELS LATE IN THE PERIOD.
III. Event Probabilities 24 JUN to 26 JUN
| Class M | 40% | 40% | 35% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 23 JUN 175 Predicted 24 JUN-26 JUN 175/170/165 90 Day Mean 23 JUN 186
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 22 JUN 011/008 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 23 JUN 018/015 PREDICTED AFR/AP 24 JUN-26 JUN 020/025-020/025-020/025
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 JUN to 26 JUN
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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