Viewing archive of Tuesday, 6 June 2000
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Jun 06 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 158 Issued at 2200Z on 06 JUN 2000IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS HIGH. THREE MAJOR EVENTS OCCURRED IN
THE PERIOD, ALL FROM REGION 9026 (N20E10). A X1/2B FLARE WITH AN
ACCOMPANYING 560 SFU TENFLARE OCCURRED AT 06/1339UT. THIS EVENT WAS
FOLLOWED BY AN M7/2N EVENT AT 06/1401UT. THE LARGEST EVENT OF THE
PERIOD WAS AN X2/3B FLARE AT 06/1525UT. THIS EVENT ALSO PRODUCED A
TYPE II SWEEP (1189 KM/S), A TYPE IV SWEEP, A 2300 SFU TENFLARE, AND
AN 11-DEGREE LONG FILAMENT ERUPTION. A FULL-HALO CME WAS CREATED BY
THIS EVENT AND WAS MONITORED BY THE LASCO/EIT SPACECRAFT TODAY.
REGION 9026 REMAINS A LARGE REGION (800 MILLIONTHS) WITH AN "F" TYPE
BETA-GAMMA-DELTA CONFIGURATION. ONE NEW REGION WAS NUMBERED: 9034
(S10E67).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE AT
MODERATE TO HIGH LEVELS. REGION 9026 CAN BE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE M-CLASS EVENTS ALONG WITH ISOLATED X-CLASS FLARES.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS MOSTLY UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE WITH A SINGLE
PERIOD OF MINOR STORMING AT MID-LATITUDES FROM 06/18-2100UT. AFTER
THAT PERIOD, THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD APPEARED TO SETTLE DOWN
APPRECIABLY AND ENDED THE DAY AT QUIET LEVELS. THE D-REGION
ABSORPTION FROM THE INTENSE (X2) X-RAY EVENT EXTENDED TO THE POLAR
CAP REGIONS OF THE DAYLIGHT SIDE OF THE EARTH.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE FIRST DAY OF THE
PERIOD WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED ACTIVE PERIODS. ACTIVITY SHOULD
INCREASE TO ACTIVE TO MINOR STORMING ON THE SECOND DAY OF THE
PERIOD, DUE TO THE ARRIVAL OF AN EARTH-DIRECTED FULL-HALO CME, AS
DESCRIBED ABOVE. ACTIVITY SHOULD INCREASE ON THE THIRD DAY TO MAJOR
STORM CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY AT HIGHER LATITUDES.
III. Event Probabilities 07 JUN to 09 JUN
| Class M | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| Class X | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Proton | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| PCAF | YELLOW | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 JUN 186 Predicted 07 JUN-09 JUN 185/195/210 90 Day Mean 06 JUN 189
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 05 JUN 022/026 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 06 JUN 018/018 PREDICTED AFR/AP 07 JUN-09 JUN 015/018-030/035-050/075
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 JUN to 09 JUN
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 50% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 25% | 35% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 20% | 25% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 45% | 50% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 30% | 35% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 20% | 25% |
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