Viewing archive of Thursday, 1 June 2000
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Jun 01 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 153 Issued at 2200Z on 01 JUN 2000IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. NEWLY NUMBERED REGION
9026 (N19E75) PRODUCED AN M2/1F TENFLARE AT 0617Z AS WELL AS
NUMEROUS LESSER-SIZED EVENTS. THIS REGION IS THE LIKELY SOURCE OF
THE EARLIER CME ACTIVITY SEEN BEYOND THE NE LIMB DURING THE PAST FEW
DAYS. IT IS THE PROBABLE RETURN OF OLD REGION 9006, BORN ON THE
DISK JUST PRIOR TO ITS WEST LIMB PASSAGE ON MAY 18. REGION 9024
(S17E16) EXHIBITED SOME GROWTH, AND ALSO PRODUCED A C8/2B TENFLARE
AT 0732Z. NEW REGION 9027 (N20E04) WAS ALSO NUMBERED TODAY. ACTIVE
REGIONS ELSEWHERE ON THE DISK WERE QUIET AND STABLE.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO ACTIVE. WEAK SUBSTORMS OCCURRED
DURING LOCAL NIGHTTIME HOURS. THE RADIAL SPEED OF THE SOLAR WIND
FELL FROM 550 TO 450 KM/S. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX AT
GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WAS HIGH.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
III. Event Probabilities 02 JUN to 04 JUN
| Class M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 01 JUN 148 Predicted 02 JUN-04 JUN 155/160/160 90 Day Mean 01 JUN 191
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 31 MAY 009/012 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 01 JUN 008/012 PREDICTED AFR/AP 02 JUN-04 JUN 010/010-010/008-005/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 JUN to 04 JUN
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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