Viewing archive of Thursday, 1 June 2000

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Jun 01 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 153 Issued at 2200Z on 01 JUN 2000

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. NEWLY NUMBERED REGION 9026 (N19E75) PRODUCED AN M2/1F TENFLARE AT 0617Z AS WELL AS NUMEROUS LESSER-SIZED EVENTS. THIS REGION IS THE LIKELY SOURCE OF THE EARLIER CME ACTIVITY SEEN BEYOND THE NE LIMB DURING THE PAST FEW DAYS. IT IS THE PROBABLE RETURN OF OLD REGION 9006, BORN ON THE DISK JUST PRIOR TO ITS WEST LIMB PASSAGE ON MAY 18. REGION 9024 (S17E16) EXHIBITED SOME GROWTH, AND ALSO PRODUCED A C8/2B TENFLARE AT 0732Z. NEW REGION 9027 (N20E04) WAS ALSO NUMBERED TODAY. ACTIVE REGIONS ELSEWHERE ON THE DISK WERE QUIET AND STABLE.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW TO MODERATE. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 31/2100Z TO 01/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO ACTIVE. WEAK SUBSTORMS OCCURRED DURING LOCAL NIGHTTIME HOURS. THE RADIAL SPEED OF THE SOLAR WIND FELL FROM 550 TO 450 KM/S. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WAS HIGH.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
III. Event Probabilities 02 JUN to 04 JUN
Class M50%50%50%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       01 JUN 148
  Predicted   02 JUN-04 JUN  155/160/160
  90 Day Mean        01 JUN 191
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 31 MAY  009/012
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 01 JUN  008/012
PREDICTED AFR/AP 02 JUN-04 JUN  010/010-010/008-005/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 JUN to 04 JUN
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%20%10%
Minor storm05%05%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%25%20%
Minor storm10%10%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

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