Viewing archive of Wednesday, 24 May 2000

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 May 24 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 145 Issued at 2200Z on 24 MAY 2000

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. REGION 8996 (S22W87) PRODUCED AN M1 X-RAY FLARE AT 24/0546Z. AN OPTICALLY UNCORRELATED M1 FLARE OCCURRED AT 24/1152Z. THE LIKELY SOURCE FOR THIS FLARE WAS NEW REGION 9017 (S14E76) WHICH HAS EXHIBITED FREQUENT SURGING FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. REGIONS 9002 (N19W51) AND 9004 (N12W61) CONTINUE TO PRODUCE C-CLASS FLARES. NEW REGIONS 9015 (N13W08) AND 9016 (N26E46) WERE ALSO NUMBERED TODAY.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT LOW TO MODERATE LEVELS. ANY ONE OF A NUMBER OF REGIONS ON OR NEAR THE WEST LIMB ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING AN ISOLATED M-CLASS FLARE. NEW REGION 9017 MAY ALSO PRODUCE AN M FLARE. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 23/2100Z TO 24/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS AT ACTIVE TO SEVERE STORM LEVELS. THE TRANSIENT OBSERVED TO PASS ACE AT 23/1625Z HERALDED THE BEGINNING OF A COMPACT AND COMPLEX MAGNETIC STRUCTURE. A NUMBER OF STRONG NORTHWARD TO SOUTHWARD VARIATIONS IN BZ OCCURRED THAT REACHED EXTREMES OF -36 NT TO +30 NT. CONDITIONS IMPROVED BY 24/12Z BUT SOLAR WIND VELOCITY REMAINS ELEVATED RESULTING IN ACTIVE TO MINOR STORM CONDITIONS PERSISTING THROUGH LATE IN THE PERIOD. THIS ACTIVITY IS PRESUMED TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE C7/1N FLARE THAT OCCURRED AT 20/0535Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE AT ACTIVE TO MINOR STORM LEVELS THROUGH DAY ONE AS THE PRESENT STORM SUBSIDES. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON DAYS TWO AND THREE.
III. Event Probabilities 25 MAY to 27 MAY
Class M50%50%40%
Class X10%10%05%
Proton05%05%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       24 MAY 189
  Predicted   25 MAY-27 MAY  180/175/165
  90 Day Mean        24 MAY 196
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 23 MAY  019/022
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 24 MAY  048/070
PREDICTED AFR/AP 25 MAY-27 MAY  018/030-010/010-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 MAY to 27 MAY
A. Middle Latitudes
Active40%40%30%
Minor storm40%20%10%
Major-severe storm10%05%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active40%50%40%
Minor storm45%30%20%
Major-severe storm15%10%05%

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