Viewing archive of Wednesday, 24 May 2000
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 May 24 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 145 Issued at 2200Z on 24 MAY 2000IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. REGION 8996 (S22W87)
PRODUCED AN M1 X-RAY FLARE AT 24/0546Z. AN OPTICALLY UNCORRELATED M1
FLARE OCCURRED AT 24/1152Z. THE LIKELY SOURCE FOR THIS FLARE WAS NEW
REGION 9017 (S14E76) WHICH HAS EXHIBITED FREQUENT SURGING FOR MOST
OF THE PERIOD. REGIONS 9002 (N19W51) AND 9004 (N12W61) CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE C-CLASS FLARES. NEW REGIONS 9015 (N13W08) AND 9016 (N26E46)
WERE ALSO NUMBERED TODAY.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
AT LOW TO MODERATE LEVELS. ANY ONE OF A NUMBER OF REGIONS ON OR NEAR
THE WEST LIMB ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING AN ISOLATED M-CLASS FLARE.
NEW REGION 9017 MAY ALSO PRODUCE AN M FLARE.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS AT ACTIVE TO SEVERE STORM LEVELS. THE
TRANSIENT OBSERVED TO PASS ACE AT 23/1625Z HERALDED THE BEGINNING OF
A COMPACT AND COMPLEX MAGNETIC STRUCTURE. A NUMBER OF STRONG
NORTHWARD TO SOUTHWARD VARIATIONS IN BZ OCCURRED THAT REACHED
EXTREMES OF -36 NT TO +30 NT. CONDITIONS IMPROVED BY 24/12Z BUT
SOLAR WIND VELOCITY REMAINS ELEVATED RESULTING IN ACTIVE TO MINOR
STORM CONDITIONS PERSISTING THROUGH LATE IN THE PERIOD. THIS
ACTIVITY IS PRESUMED TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE C7/1N FLARE THAT
OCCURRED AT 20/0535Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE AT ACTIVE TO MINOR STORM LEVELS THROUGH DAY ONE AS
THE PRESENT STORM SUBSIDES. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON
DAYS TWO AND THREE.
III. Event Probabilities 25 MAY to 27 MAY
| Class M | 50% | 50% | 40% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 24 MAY 189 Predicted 25 MAY-27 MAY 180/175/165 90 Day Mean 24 MAY 196
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 23 MAY 019/022 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 24 MAY 048/070 PREDICTED AFR/AP 25 MAY-27 MAY 018/030-010/010-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 MAY to 27 MAY
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 40% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 40% | 20% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 50% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 45% | 30% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 10% | 05% |
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