Viewing archive of Monday, 22 May 2000
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 May 22 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 143 Issued at 2200Z on 22 MAY 2000IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 8996 (S20W63) PRODUCED
SEVERAL SMALL C-CLASS FLARES, INCLUDING THE LARGEST EVENT THIS
PERIOD - A C5 X-RAY FLARE AT 22/0356Z. THOUGH QUITE ACTIVE, THIS
REGION IS DECAYING IN SIZE AND COMPLEXITY. REGIONS 8996 (S20W63),
9002 (N20W23), AND 9004 (N12W34), ALL MODERATELY SIZED REGIONS
EXCEEDING 400 MILLIONTHS IN WHITE LIGHT AREA, WERE ALSO EITHER
STABLE OR IN DECAY.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE. THOUGH THE LARGER, MORE COMPLEX REGIONS ARE DECAYING,
THEY STILL HAVE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENT.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS MOSTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED WITH ONE ISOLATED
ACTIVE PERIOD BETWEEN 22/09-12Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE AT QUIET TO ACTIVE LEVELS.
III. Event Probabilities 23 MAY to 25 MAY
| Class M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 MAY 215 Predicted 23 MAY-25 MAY 205/195/185 90 Day Mean 22 MAY 196
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 21 MAY 005/007 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 22 MAY 010/008 PREDICTED AFR/AP 23 MAY-25 MAY 015/012-012/008-010/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 MAY to 25 MAY
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 20% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 35% | 15% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 10% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 50% | 40% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 20% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 10% | 10% |
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