Viewing archive of Monday, 22 May 2000

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 May 22 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 143 Issued at 2200Z on 22 MAY 2000

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 8996 (S20W63) PRODUCED SEVERAL SMALL C-CLASS FLARES, INCLUDING THE LARGEST EVENT THIS PERIOD - A C5 X-RAY FLARE AT 22/0356Z. THOUGH QUITE ACTIVE, THIS REGION IS DECAYING IN SIZE AND COMPLEXITY. REGIONS 8996 (S20W63), 9002 (N20W23), AND 9004 (N12W34), ALL MODERATELY SIZED REGIONS EXCEEDING 400 MILLIONTHS IN WHITE LIGHT AREA, WERE ALSO EITHER STABLE OR IN DECAY.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW TO MODERATE. THOUGH THE LARGER, MORE COMPLEX REGIONS ARE DECAYING, THEY STILL HAVE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENT. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 21/2100Z TO 22/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS MOSTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED WITH ONE ISOLATED ACTIVE PERIOD BETWEEN 22/09-12Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE AT QUIET TO ACTIVE LEVELS.
III. Event Probabilities 23 MAY to 25 MAY
Class M50%50%50%
Class X10%10%10%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       22 MAY 215
  Predicted   23 MAY-25 MAY  205/195/185
  90 Day Mean        22 MAY 196
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 21 MAY  005/007
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 22 MAY  010/008
PREDICTED AFR/AP 23 MAY-25 MAY  015/012-012/008-010/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 MAY to 25 MAY
A. Middle Latitudes
Active40%20%10%
Minor storm35%15%05%
Major-severe storm25%10%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active50%40%30%
Minor storm30%20%15%
Major-severe storm15%10%10%

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