Viewing archive of Friday, 12 May 2000

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 May 12 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 133 Issued at 2200Z on 12 MAY 2000

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. THERE WERE A NUMBER OF C-CLASS X-RAY FLARES, ALL OF THEM OPTICALLY UNCORRELATED. A 32 DEGREE FILAMENT ERUPTED FROM ROUGHLY S50E50 BETWEEN 11/22 AND 11/23UT. THE ERUPTION WAS VISIBLE IN EIT IMAGERY AND LASCO REVEALED A DRAMATIC CME OFF THE SOUTH POLE. AT THIS TIME THE CME DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE EARTH DIRECTED.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW TO MODERATE. THERE ARE CURRENTLY A NUMBER OF REGIONS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING M FLARES. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 11/2100Z TO 12/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS AT QUIET TO MINOR STORM LEVELS. ACE DATA INDICATED THE PASSAGE OF TWO SOLAR TRANSIENTS, ASSUMED TO BE RELATED TO THE MULTIPLE FILAMENT ERUPTIONS OF 8 MAY. WHILE THE TRANSIENTS PRODUCED SUSTAINED PERIODS OF NEGATIVE BZ, THE WIND SPEED REMAINED VERY LOW INHIBITING A STRONG GEOMAGNETIC RESPONSE.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO MINOR STORM FOR THE FIRST TWO DAYS OF THE PERIOD. ON THE FIRST DAY, WE EXPECT TO SEE INCREASES IN THE SOLAR WIND SPEED DUE TO A SMALL CORONAL HOLE THAT IS NOW FAVORABLY POSITIONED. A SHOCK ASSOCIATED WITH THE 10 MAY LONG DURATION FLARE AND FILAMENT ERUPTION IS ALSO EXPECTED LATE 13 OR EARLY 14 MAY.
III. Event Probabilities 13 MAY to 15 MAY
Class M50%50%50%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       12 MAY 190
  Predicted   13 MAY-15 MAY  195/200/200
  90 Day Mean        12 MAY 187
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 11 MAY  004/006
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 12 MAY  015/020
PREDICTED AFR/AP 13 MAY-15 MAY  020/020-015/015-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 MAY to 15 MAY
A. Middle Latitudes
Active40%30%20%
Minor storm20%15%05%
Major-severe storm05%05%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active40%35%25%
Minor storm25%20%05%
Major-severe storm05%05%01%

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