Viewing archive of Thursday, 11 May 2000

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 May 11 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 132 Issued at 2200Z on 11 MAY 2000

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. THE LARGEST EVENT WAS AN OPTICALLY UNCORRELATED C7 X-RAY FLARE. THERE WERE ALSO A NUMBER OF SMALLER C-CLASS X-RAY AND OPTICAL SF FLARES. NEW REGIONS 8995 (S19E00), 8996 (S18E77), AND 8997 (S14E64) WERE NUMBERED TODAY.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW TO MODERATE. REGIONS 8989 (N17W14), 8990 (N14E05), 8993 (S23W19) ARE ALL CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WEAK M FLARES. NEW REGION 8996 ALSO BEARS WATCHING. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 10/2100Z TO 11/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO MINOR STORM THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. IT IS STILL POSSIBLE THAT WE COULD SEE ACTIVITY FROM THE 8 MAY FILAMENT ERUPTION EARLY ON DAY ONE, ALTHOUGH THERE HAS STILL NOT BEEN ANY STRONG INDICATION OF ITS APPROACH IN THE ACE SATELLITE DATA. EFFECTS OF A SMALL RECURRENT CORONAL HOLE ARE EXPECTED LATE 12 TO EARLY 13 MAY. YESTERDAY'S FILAMENT ERUPTION AND LONG DURATION FLARE PRODUCED A PARTIAL HALO CME OBSERVED BY SOHO/LASCO. AN ASSOCIATED SHOCK IS EXPECTED LATE 13 OR EARLY 14 MAY.
III. Event Probabilities 12 MAY to 14 MAY
Class M50%50%50%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       11 MAY 178
  Predicted   12 MAY-14 MAY  190/195/200
  90 Day Mean        11 MAY 186
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 10 MAY  005/007
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 11 MAY  005/007
PREDICTED AFR/AP 12 MAY-14 MAY  020/020-020/020-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 MAY to 14 MAY
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%30%30%
Minor storm15%15%10%
Major-severe storm05%05%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%30%30%
Minor storm20%20%15%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%

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