Viewing archive of Thursday, 11 May 2000
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 May 11 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 132 Issued at 2200Z on 11 MAY 2000IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. THE LARGEST EVENT WAS AN
OPTICALLY UNCORRELATED C7 X-RAY FLARE. THERE WERE ALSO A NUMBER OF
SMALLER C-CLASS X-RAY AND OPTICAL SF FLARES. NEW REGIONS 8995
(S19E00), 8996 (S18E77), AND 8997 (S14E64) WERE NUMBERED TODAY.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE. REGIONS 8989 (N17W14), 8990 (N14E05), 8993 (S23W19)
ARE ALL CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WEAK M FLARES. NEW REGION 8996 ALSO
BEARS WATCHING.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO MINOR STORM THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. IT
IS STILL POSSIBLE THAT WE COULD SEE ACTIVITY FROM THE 8 MAY FILAMENT
ERUPTION EARLY ON DAY ONE, ALTHOUGH THERE HAS STILL NOT BEEN ANY
STRONG INDICATION OF ITS APPROACH IN THE ACE SATELLITE DATA. EFFECTS
OF A SMALL RECURRENT CORONAL HOLE ARE EXPECTED LATE 12 TO EARLY 13
MAY. YESTERDAY'S FILAMENT ERUPTION AND LONG DURATION FLARE PRODUCED
A PARTIAL HALO CME OBSERVED BY SOHO/LASCO. AN ASSOCIATED SHOCK IS
EXPECTED LATE 13 OR EARLY 14 MAY.
III. Event Probabilities 12 MAY to 14 MAY
| Class M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 MAY 178 Predicted 12 MAY-14 MAY 190/195/200 90 Day Mean 11 MAY 186
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 10 MAY 005/007 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 11 MAY 005/007 PREDICTED AFR/AP 12 MAY-14 MAY 020/020-020/020-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 MAY to 14 MAY
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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