Viewing archive of Monday, 17 April 2000
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Apr 17 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 108 Issued at 2200Z on 17 APR 2000IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 8955 (S22W06) PRODUCED
THE TWO LARGEST EVENTS OF THE PERIOD - A C2/1F AT 17/0028UT AND A
C3/1N AT 17/1734UT. THIS REGION APPEARS TO HAVE STABILIZED,
EXHIBITING LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS AND NOW COVERS 320
MILLIONTHS OF WHITE LIGHT AREA. THERE WAS LITTLE OR NO CHANGE OR
ACTIVITY NOTED IN THE REMAINING ELEVEN SPOTTED REGIONS. NEW REGION
8965 (S16E66) WAS NUMBERED TODAY.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE. REGION 8955 STILL HAS POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED SMALL
M-CLASS FLARE.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO ACTIVE WITH AN ISOLATED MINOR
STORMING PERIOD BETWEEN 17/06 - 09UT.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED WITH ISOLATED ACTIVE
PERIODS THROUGH THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
III. Event Probabilities 18 APR to 20 APR
| Class M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 17 APR 158 Predicted 18 APR-20 APR 160/165/165 90 Day Mean 17 APR 183
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 16 APR 016/023 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 17 APR 012/015 PREDICTED AFR/AP 18 APR-20 APR 012/015-012/012-012/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 APR to 20 APR
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 30% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 45% | 40% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
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