Viewing archive of Saturday, 8 April 2000
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Apr 08 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 099 Issued at 2200Z on 08 APR 2000IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN MODERATE. REGION 8948 (S15E14)
PRODUCED AN M2/1B FLARE AT 0240Z AND AN M1/1N AT 2046Z. THIS REGION
HAS CONTINUED TO GROW AND HAS A COMPLICATED MAGNETIC STRUCTURE
INCLUDING A SMALL DELTA SPOT. NEARLY ALL OF TODAY'S OBSERVED FLARE
ACTIVITY CAME FROM THIS GROUP. REGION 8951 (N13E64) ROTATED MORE
FULLY INTO VIEW AS A D-TYPE SUNSPOT GROUP. REGION 8949 (S19E43)
EXHIBITED GROWTH BUT WAS STABLE. A CME WAS OBSERVED TO ENTER THE
LASCO C2 FIELD OF VIEW AT 1554Z TODAY: THE MATERIAL WAS CONSTRAINED
TO A RELATIVELY SMALL ANGLE OFF THE SOUTHWEST LIMB, AND DISK
OBSERVATIONS INDICATED THAT THE SOURCE REGION WAS JUST BEHIND WEST
LIMB.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
MODERATE. REGION 8948 SHOWS FAIR-GOOD POTENTIAL FOR PRODUCING
ADDITIONAL M-CLASS FLARES.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED AT MID-LATITUDES AND WAS
QUIET TO ACTIVE AT HIGH LATITUDES. THE HIGH LATITUDE ACTIVE PERIODS
OCCURRED FROM 0600-1200Z. SOLAR WIND SPEED REMAINS ELEVATED (500-550
KM/S), BUT THE DENSITY IS LOW AND THE MAGNETIC FIELD INTENSITY IS
WEAK.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
III. Event Probabilities 09 APR to 11 APR
| Class M | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 08 APR 182 Predicted 09 APR-11 APR 180/180/175 90 Day Mean 08 APR 186
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 07 APR 034/050 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 08 APR 015/015 PREDICTED AFR/AP 09 APR-11 APR 012/010-010/010-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 APR to 11 APR
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 15% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
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