Viewing archive of Wednesday, 5 April 2000

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Apr 05 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 096 Issued at 2200Z on 05 APR 2000

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW, ONLY C-CLASS FLARES WERE OBSERVED. THERE ARE 14 SPOTTED REGIONS VISIBLE ON THE DISK, MOST APPEAR STABLE OR DECLINING. REGION 8933 (N18W84) REMAINS MAGNETICALLY COMPLEX AS IT BEGINS ITS WEST LIMB TRANSIT. SOHO SPACECRAFT CORONAL IMAGES INDICATE THAT A CME, WHICH MAY BE EARTH-DIRECTED, WAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE C9/2F FLARE FROM THIS REGION ON 4 APRIL. REGION 8948 (S15E56) APPEARS TO BE A DAO SPOT GROUP WITH AN EAST-WEST NEUTRAL LINE. REGIONS 8949 (S18E76) AND 8950 (N18W64) WERE NUMBERED TODAY.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW TO MODERATE. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 04/2100Z TO 05/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS MOSTLY UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE. THE PROTON EVENT WHICH STARTED AT 04/2055T PEAKED AT 55 PFU AT 05/0930UT AND CONTINUES IN PROGRESS (CURRENT FLUX IS 20 PFU AT >10MEV). THE ASSOCIATED PCA BEGAN AT 05/0653UT, REACHED MAXIMUM OF 2.2 DB AT 05/0950UT AND ENDED AT 05/1807UT.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED UNTIL 08 APRIL WHEN THE FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BECOME ACTIVE WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE DISTURBANCE FROM THE CME ASSOCIATED WITH THE C9/2F FLARE AT 04/1541UT. THE SATELLITE PROTON EVENT IS EXPECTED TO END IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
III. Event Probabilities 06 APR to 08 APR
Class M50%50%50%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       05 APR 194
  Predicted   06 APR-08 APR  190/185/180
  90 Day Mean        05 APR 185
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 04 APR  023/021
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 05 APR  009/012
PREDICTED AFR/AP 06 APR-08 APR  008/010-008/010-025/025
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 APR to 08 APR
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%10%30%
Minor storm05%05%20%
Major-severe storm01%01%06%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%30%
Minor storm05%05%20%
Major-severe storm01%01%11%

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