Viewing archive of Tuesday, 4 April 2000

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Apr 04 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 095 Issued at 2200Z on 04 APR 2000

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. AN M1 FLARE OCCURRED AT 04/0132UT. THIS EVENT WAS NOT REPORTED BY GROUND BASED OBSERVATORIES, BUT IS COINCIDENT WITH ACTIVITY FROM REGION 8948 (S15E70) AS SEEN BY THE SOHO SPACECRAFT. REGION 8948 CONTAINS A CSO SPOT GROUP AND IS IN THE AREA OF RETURNING REGION 8906. REGION 8933 (N17W70) PRODUCED A C9/2F FLARE AT 04/1541UT. THIS EVENT WAS ACCOMPANIED BY A DSF AND IS PROBABLY THE SOURCE OF THE INCREASE OF ENERGETIC PARTICLES SEEN AT THE GOES SPACECRAFT STARTING AROUND 04/1700UT.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW TO MODERATE. THERE IS A CHANCE OF M FLARES FROM REGIONS 8933, 8936, AND 8948. REGION 8910 (N11 L=069) IS DUE TO RETURN TO THE EAST LIMB ON 7 APRIL AND COULD INCREASE THE LEVEL OF ACTIVITY. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 03/2100Z TO 04/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS RANGED FROM QUIET TO MAJOR STORM. A K=6 WAS OBSERVED AT BOULDER FOR THE 0300UT TIME PERIOD. THE FIELD RETURNED TO QUIET LEVELS BY 0900UT ONLY TO BECOME ACTIVE AGAIN BY 1500UT. SOLAR WIND DATA FROM THE ACE SPACECRAFT INDICATE THAT THIS ACTIVITY WAS ASSOCIATED WITH CHANGES IN THE INTERPLANETARY MAGNETIC FIELD. BZ BEGAN THE DAY AROUND -7NT, TURNED POSITIVE (10NT) AROUND 0200UT AND RETURNED NEGATIVE (-7NT) AFTER 1100UT. FLUXES OF >10MEV PROTONS BEGAN TO INCREASE AFTER 04/1700UT, AND REACH 10PFU AT 04/2030UT. THIS INCREASE IS PROBABLY RELATED TO THE C9 FLARE FROM REGION 8933 AS REPORTED IN PART 1A.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO ACTIVE.
III. Event Probabilities 05 APR to 07 APR
Class M50%50%50%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       04 APR 207
  Predicted   05 APR-07 APR  205/200/200
  90 Day Mean        04 APR 184
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 03 APR  012/012
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 04 APR  022/020
PREDICTED AFR/AP 05 APR-07 APR  010/015-008/012-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 APR to 07 APR
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%10%10%
Minor storm10%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%15%15%
Minor storm15%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

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