Viewing archive of Sunday, 19 March 2000

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Mar 19 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 079 Issued at 2200Z on 19 MAR 2000

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. REGIONS 8906 (S17W74) AND 8910 (N12W23) PRODUCED THE BRUNT OF THE DAY'S ACTIVITY. 8906 HAD AN M3/1N TENFLARE AT 18/2357Z, AND AN M1/1F TENFLARE AT 1756Z, AS WELL AS OTHER SMALLER EVENTS. THE REGION IS NEARING WEST LIMB, BUT CLEARLY REMAINS POTENT. REGION 8910 PRODUCED AN M2/2N AT 18/2333Z, AND OTHER LESSER-SIZED EVENTS. THIS REGION IS THE MOST OMINOUS ON THE VISIBLE DISK, MEASURING NEARLY 600 MILLIONTHS IN WHITE LIGHT AREA, 48 SPOTS, AND A BETA-GAMMA DELTA MAGNETIC TOPOLOGY. OTHER SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY OCCURRING WERE: A C4/1F FLARE WITH TYPE II AT 18/2154Z FROM REGION 8909 (S29E25), AN UNOBSERVED C5 X-RAY EVENT WITH TYPE II AT 0202Z, AND THE DISAPPEARANCE OF A 29 DEGREE-LONG FILAMENT CENTERED NEAR S69W04 IN THE FIRST HALF OF TODAY. TWO NEW REGIONS, 8918 (N32W14) AND 8919 (S22E58) WERE NUMBERED.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MODERATE. REGIONS 8906 AND 8910 SHOULD CONTINUE TO GENERATE OCCASIONAL M-CLASS ACTIVITY. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF X-CLASS ACTIVITY SHOULD FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OCCUR IN REGION 8910. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 18/2100Z TO 19/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
III. Event Probabilities 20 MAR to 22 MAR
Class M 70%70%50%
Class X 15%15%10%
Proton15%15%10%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       19 MAR 208
  Predicted    20 MAR-22 MAR  215/220/230
  90 Day Mean        19 MAR 174
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 18 MAR  006/007
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 19 MAR  008/008
PREDICTED AFR/AP 20 MAR-22 MAR  005/008-010/008-010/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 MAR to 22 MAR
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%20%20%
Minor storm 01%05%05%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%25%25%
Minor storm 05%05%05%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%

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