Viewing archive of Wednesday, 1 March 2000
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Mar 01 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
:::::::::: CORRECTED COPY :::::::::: SDF Number 061 Issued at 2200Z on 01 MAR 2000IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29-2100Z to 01-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN LOW. CONSENSUS OF THE REPORTS
FOR REGION 8882 (S15 W45) INDICATE AN INCREASE IN ITS COMPLEXITY.
IT AND REGION 8891 (S16 E08) REMAIN THE LARGEST, MOST COMPLEX
REGIONS ON THE VISIBLE SUN. A SERIES OF CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS HAVE
OCCURRED ABOVE THE SOUTHEAST LIMB AND SOME MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH
ACTIVITY IN REGION 8882, INDICATING A SOURCE NEAR THE CENTER OF THE
DISK.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
LOW TO MODERATE WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF MORE ENERGETIC X-RAY EVENTS,
PRIMARILY FROM REGIONS 8888 AND 8892.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29-2100Z to 01-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN ACTIVE. SOLAR WIND OBSERVATIONS FROM
THE ACE SATELLITE INDICATE A TRANSITION OUT OF CORONAL HOLE-DRIVEN
CONDITIONS IN THE PAST 24 HOURS. A RAPID CHANGE IN PARAMETERS
AROUND 01/2000Z MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH A SHOCK PASSAGE. ENERGETIC
ELECTRON FLUX GREATER THAN 2 MEV AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT REMAINED
BELOW ALERT THRESHOLDS TODAY.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE. ACTIVITY LEVELS MAY BE
INFLUENCED IN A FEW DAYS BY THE INTERPLANETARY EFFECTS FROM A SPATE
OF CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS.
III. Event Probabilities 02 MAR to 04 MAR
| Class M | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| Class X | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 01 MAR 233 Predicted 02 MAR-04 MAR 225/225/225 90 Day Mean 01 MAR 168
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 29 FEB 005/006 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 01 MAR 015/020 PREDICTED AFR/AP 02 MAR-04 MAR 012/012-012/012-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 MAR to 04 MAR
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 02% | 02% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 03% | 03% | 03% |
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