Viewing archive of Tuesday, 29 February 2000

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Feb 29 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 060 Issued at 2200Z on 29 FEB 2000

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN LOW.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW TO MODERATE WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF CLASS M FLARES. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 28/2100Z TO 29/2100Z: GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY HAS BEEN UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE. ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUX GREATER THAN 2 MEV AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT ARE STILL ABOVE EVENT THRESHOLDS.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE.
III. Event Probabilities 01 MAR to 03 MAR
Class M50%50%50%
Class X10%20%20%
Proton10%10%10%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       29 FEB 219
  Predicted   01 MAR-03 MAR  220/220/220
  90 Day Mean        29 FEB 167
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 28 FEB  012/012
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 29 FEB  008/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 01 MAR-03 MAR  012/020-010/012-005/007
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 MAR to 03 MAR
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%20%15%
Minor storm10%10%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%20%10%
Minor storm10%10%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

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