Viewing archive of Monday, 28 February 2000

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Feb 28 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 059 Issued at 2200Z on 28 FEB 2000

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN LOW. NO MORE THAN CLASS C FLARES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW TO MODERATE. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 27/2100Z TO 28/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET TO UNSETTLED. SOLAR WIND CONDITIONS REMAIN TYPICAL OF THOSE ASSOCIATED WITH A CORONAL HOLE. VELOCITIES HAVE REMAINED IN THE 600 TO 700 KM PER SECOND RANGE. ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUXES GREATER THAN 2 MEV AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT REMAINED AT HIGH LEVELS.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS. OFF-AXIS EFFECTS OF A CORONAL MASS EJECTION ON 26 FEBRUARY AND A TYPE II SHOCK REPORTED AT 28/1027 Z HAVE SOME SMALL POTENTIAL FOR PRODUCING GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS. ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN ABOVE ALERT THRESHOLD FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER DAY.
III. Event Probabilities 29 FEB to 02 MAR
Class M 70%70%70%
Class X 20%20%20%
Proton10%10%10%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       28 FEB 219
  Predicted    29 FEB-02 MAR  220/220/220
  90 Day Mean        28 FEB 167
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 27 FEB  006/010
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 28 FEB  012/014
PREDICTED AFR/AP 29 FEB-02 MAR  012/010-012/025-012/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 FEB to 02 MAR
A. Middle Latitudes
Active07%06%06%
Minor storm 03%03%03%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active09%07%08%
Minor storm 04%04%05%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%

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