Viewing archive of Saturday, 19 February 2000
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Feb 19 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 050 Issued at 2200Z on 19 FEB 2000IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE DUE TO A SINGLE M-CLASS
EVENT FROM REGION 8869 (S20W49). REGION 8869 WAS BY FAR THE MOST
ACTIVE REGION DURING THE PERIOD. REGION 8869 PRODUCED AN M1/1N FLARE
AT 19/1547UT AND A C8/SF FLARE AT 19/0633UT. THIS REGION ALSO
PRODUCED SEVERAL OPTICAL SUBFLARES DURING THE PERIOD. SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PERIOD, REGION 8869 SHOWED A 50% GROWTH IN AREA AND NEARLY
DOUBLED THE NUMBER OF SPOTS, FROM 26 TO 44. ITS MAGNETIC
CLASSIFICATION HAS BECOME MORE COMPLEX, DEVELOPING INTO A BETA-GAMMA
CLASSIFICATION. AN UNCORRELATED TYPE II RADIO SWEEP WAS OBSERVED AT
19/0844UT WITH A REPORTED SPEED OF 1200 KM/S. THE REST OF THE DISK
AND LIMBS WERE MOSTLY QUIET AND STABLE.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
MOSTLY LOW WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF OCCASIONAL ISOLATED M-CLASS
EVENTS FROM REGION 8869.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS MOSTLY QUIET WITH A SINGLE UNSETTLED PERIOD
OBSERVED AT 19/09-1200UT.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE ACTIVE TO MINOR STORMING LEVELS FOR THE FIRST TWO
DAYS OF THE PERIOD, WITH POSSIBLE MAJOR STORMING AT HIGHER
LATITUDES. THESE CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RESULT FROM THE SHOCK OF A
FULL-HALO CME PRODUCED BY THE M2/2N EVENT ON FEBRUARY 17TH. THE
THIRD DAY OF THE PERIOD SHOULD SEE CONDITIONS BECOMING UNSETTLED TO
ACTIVE.
III. Event Probabilities 20 FEB to 22 FEB
| Class M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 FEB 145 Predicted 20 FEB-22 FEB 140/135/135 90 Day Mean 19 FEB 165
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 18 FEB 002/002 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 19 FEB 005/005 PREDICTED AFR/AP 20 FEB-22 FEB 030/025-030/050-015/030
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 FEB to 22 FEB
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 50% | 50% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 30% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 50% | 50% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 25% | 10% |
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