Viewing archive of Sunday, 13 February 2000

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Feb 13 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 044 Issued at 2200Z on 13 FEB 2000

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 8858 (N24W50), IN A STATE OF DECAY, HAD THE DAY'S SOLE C-CLASS FLARE (C1/SF) AT 0539Z. PROMINENCE ACTIVITY OCCURRED ON THE NORTHWEST LIMB NEAR WHERE REGION 8855 (N18W90) DEPARTED. NEWLY ASSIGNED REGION 8873 (S18E66) ROTATED FULLY INTO VIEW.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 12/2100Z TO 13/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO ACTIVE. THE RECENT STORM SUBSIDED AS THE INTERPLANETARY MAGNETIC FIELD RETURNED TO MORE NORMAL CONDITIONS. HOWEVER, THE SOLAR WIND SPEED IS STILL ELEVATED, NOW AT APPROXIMATELY 575 KM/S. THE GREATER THAN 10 MEV PROTONS AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT HAVE RETURNED TO BACKGROUND VALUES.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SHORT-LIVED ACTIVE CONDITIONS TO OCCUR DURING LOCAL NIGHTTIME HOURS.
III. Event Probabilities 14 FEB to 16 FEB
Class M10%10%10%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       13 FEB 160
  Predicted   14 FEB-16 FEB  155/150/150
  90 Day Mean        13 FEB 169
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 12 FEB  035/052
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 13 FEB  013/015
PREDICTED AFR/AP 14 FEB-16 FEB  010/015-010/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 FEB to 16 FEB
A. Middle Latitudes
Active40%20%10%
Minor storm10%05%05%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active50%30%20%
Minor storm15%10%10%
Major-severe storm05%05%01%

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