Viewing archive of Tuesday, 18 January 2000

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Jan 18 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 018 Issued at 2200Z on 18 JAN 2000

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. REGION 8831 (S18E01) PRODUCED A LONG DURATION M3/1N X-RAY EVENT AT 18/1727Z WITH AN ASSOCIATED TYPE II SWEEP AND AN ESTIMATED SPEED OF 400 KM/S. REGION 8824 PRODUCED AN M1/SF AT 18/1008Z. REGION 8837 (S08W27) RAPIDLY DEVELOPED DURING THE PERIOD AND IS CURRENTLY A DSO BETA SUNSPOT GROUP WITH APPROXIMATELY 9 SPOTS. NEW REGIONS 8837 (S08W27) AND 8838 (N12E67) WERE NUMBERED TODAY.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW TO MODERATE. REGIONS 8824 AND 8831 HAVE THE BEST POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE AN ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENT. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 17/2100Z TO 18/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET. AN ISOLATED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WAS OBSERVED IN THE HIGHER LATITUDES FROM 18/1500 - 1800Z..
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE PERIOD THEN BECOME QUIET TO UNSETTLED. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF A SOLAR PROTON EVENT AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT DUE TO THE CHARACTERISTICS OF THE M3 X-RAY EVENT MENTIONED ABOVE.
III. Event Probabilities 19 JAN to 21 JAN
Class M50%40%40%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton10%01%01%
PCAFYELLOW
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       18 JAN 195
  Predicted   19 JAN-21 JAN  190/185/180
  90 Day Mean        18 JAN 177
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 17 JAN  004/003
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 18 JAN  005/003
PREDICTED AFR/AP 19 JAN-21 JAN  005/005-010/010-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 JAN to 21 JAN
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%15%15%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%20%20%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

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