Viewing archive of Monday, 17 January 2000

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Jan 17 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 017 Issued at 2200Z on 17 JAN 2000

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. A C7 X-RAY EVENT OCCURRED AT 17/0028Z WITH NO OPTICAL CORRELATION. OTHERWISE, THERE WERE ONLY SEVERAL MINOR C-CLASS EVENTS DURING THE PERIOD. SOME DECAY WAS OBSERVED IN REGION 8824 (S12W30) AND IT NOW HAS A MORE SIMPLE BETA MAGNETIC CONFIGURATION. THERE WAS MINOR GROWTH IN REGION 8831 (S18E14). NEW REGION 8836 (S12E37) WAS NUMBERED.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW TO MODERATE. REGIONS 8824 AND 8831 HAVE THE BEST POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE AN ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENT. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 16/2100Z TO 17/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS AND THEN BECOME QUIET TO UNSETTLED DURING THE THIRD DAY.
III. Event Probabilities 18 JAN to 20 JAN
Class M40%40%40%
Class X10%10%10%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       17 JAN 196
  Predicted   18 JAN-20 JAN  195/190/185
  90 Day Mean        17 JAN 177
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 16 JAN  004/006
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 17 JAN  005/005
PREDICTED AFR/AP 18 JAN-20 JAN  005/005-005/005-010/007
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 JAN to 20 JAN
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%10%15%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%20%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

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