Viewing archive of Thursday, 13 January 2000
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Jan 13 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 013 Issued at 2200Z on 13 JAN 2000IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. THE BIGGEST AND MOST ACTIVE
REGION IS STILL 8824 (S12E20). REGION 8824 SHOWED SOME INCREASE IN
GROWTH AND STILL MAINTAINS A BETA-GAMMA-DELTA MAGNETIC
CLASSIFICATION. HOWEVER, IN THE LAST 24 HOURS IT HAS ONLY PRODUCED
SMALL C-CLASS X-RAY EVENTS AND OPTICAL SUBFLARES. THIS REGION
CONTINUES TO SHOW PLAGE FLUCTUATIONS AND ENHANCEMENTS AND REMAINS A
POTENTIAL SOURCE FOR M AND X-CLASS EVENTS. THE REST OF THE REGIONS
SHOWED LITTLE CHANGE SINCE YESTERDAY WITH ACTIVITY NOTED IN REGIONS
8827 (S12W46) AND 8829 (N15E52). FOUR NEW REGIONS WERE NUMBERED:
8830 (S10W02), 8831 (S17E66), 8832 (S17W03), AND 8833 (N19E78).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
MODERATE WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED X-CLASS EVENTS FROM REGION 8824.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS MOSTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED WITH A SINGLE
PERIOD OF ACTIVE CONDITIONS OCCURRING AT 13/06-0900UT.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
III. Event Probabilities 14 JAN to 16 JAN
| Class M | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| Class X | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | YELLOW | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 JAN 202 Predicted 14 JAN-16 JAN 205/210/215 90 Day Mean 13 JAN 176
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 12 JAN 008/009 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 13 JAN 007/008 PREDICTED AFR/AP 14 JAN-16 JAN 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 JAN to 16 JAN
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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