Viewing archive of Monday, 22 November 1999
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1999 Nov 22 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 326 Issued at 2200Z on 22 NOV 1999IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY DECREASED TO LOW LEVELS. REGION 8765
(S13W72) SHOWED GRADUAL DECAY AS IT APPROACHED THE WEST LIMB, BUT
REMAINED LARGE AND MAGNETICALLY COMPLEX. IT PRODUCED ISOLATED
SUBFLARES DURING THE PERIOD INCLUDING A C8/SF AT 22/1217Z. REGION
8771 (S16W11) ALSO PRODUCED ISOLATED SUBFLARES. IT SHOWED GRADUAL
GROWTH AND REMAINED MODERATE IN SIZE AND MAGNETIC COMPLEXITY. REGION
8776 (S29W01) GREW GRADUALLY AND PRODUCED ISOLATED SUBFLARES, BUT
REMAINED A SIMPLY-STRUCTURED BIPOLE. REGION 8766 (N17W49) CONTINUED
TO SLOWLY DECAY. NO NEW REGIONS WERE ASSIGNED.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
MODERATE. REGIONS 8765 AND 8771 COULD PRODUCE ISOLATED M-CLASS
FLARES. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED MAJOR FLARE
FROM EITHER OF THESE REGIONS.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
GEOMAGNETIC FIELD ACTIVITY RANGED FROM QUIET TO ACTIVE LEVELS. ACTIVE
LEVELS OCCURRED DURING 22/1100 - 1400Z IN RESPONSE TO A PERIOD OF
SUSTAINED SOUTHWARD IMF BZ. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX
DECLINED TO NORMAL TO MODERATE LEVELS.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
GEOMAGNETIC FIELD ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO BE AT QUIET TO (BRIEFLY) ACTIVE LEVELS DURING THE FIRST
DAY DUE TO CORONAL HOLE EFFECTS. QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR A PROTON EVENT AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT, SHOULD A MAJOR
FLARE OCCUR FROM REGIONS 8765 OR 8771.
III. Event Probabilities 23 NOV to 25 NOV
| Class M | 75% | 70% | 70% |
| Class X | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | YELLOW | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 NOV 192 Predicted 23 NOV-25 NOV 185/170/165 90 Day Mean 22 NOV 167
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 21 NOV 011/010 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 22 NOV 012/015 PREDICTED AFR/AP 23 NOV-25 NOV 015/018-012/015-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 NOV to 25 NOV
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 25% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 30% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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