Viewing archive of Monday, 22 November 1999

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1999 Nov 22 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 326 Issued at 2200Z on 22 NOV 1999

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY DECREASED TO LOW LEVELS. REGION 8765 (S13W72) SHOWED GRADUAL DECAY AS IT APPROACHED THE WEST LIMB, BUT REMAINED LARGE AND MAGNETICALLY COMPLEX. IT PRODUCED ISOLATED SUBFLARES DURING THE PERIOD INCLUDING A C8/SF AT 22/1217Z. REGION 8771 (S16W11) ALSO PRODUCED ISOLATED SUBFLARES. IT SHOWED GRADUAL GROWTH AND REMAINED MODERATE IN SIZE AND MAGNETIC COMPLEXITY. REGION 8776 (S29W01) GREW GRADUALLY AND PRODUCED ISOLATED SUBFLARES, BUT REMAINED A SIMPLY-STRUCTURED BIPOLE. REGION 8766 (N17W49) CONTINUED TO SLOWLY DECAY. NO NEW REGIONS WERE ASSIGNED.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MODERATE. REGIONS 8765 AND 8771 COULD PRODUCE ISOLATED M-CLASS FLARES. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED MAJOR FLARE FROM EITHER OF THESE REGIONS. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 21/2100Z TO 22/2100Z: GEOMAGNETIC FIELD ACTIVITY RANGED FROM QUIET TO ACTIVE LEVELS. ACTIVE LEVELS OCCURRED DURING 22/1100 - 1400Z IN RESPONSE TO A PERIOD OF SUSTAINED SOUTHWARD IMF BZ. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX DECLINED TO NORMAL TO MODERATE LEVELS.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
GEOMAGNETIC FIELD ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE AT QUIET TO (BRIEFLY) ACTIVE LEVELS DURING THE FIRST DAY DUE TO CORONAL HOLE EFFECTS. QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A PROTON EVENT AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT, SHOULD A MAJOR FLARE OCCUR FROM REGIONS 8765 OR 8771.
III. Event Probabilities 23 NOV to 25 NOV
Class M75%70%70%
Class X15%10%10%
Proton10%05%05%
PCAFYELLOW
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       22 NOV 192
  Predicted   23 NOV-25 NOV  185/170/165
  90 Day Mean        22 NOV 167
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 21 NOV  011/010
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 22 NOV  012/015
PREDICTED AFR/AP 23 NOV-25 NOV  015/018-012/015-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 NOV to 25 NOV
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%25%20%
Minor storm15%10%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active40%30%25%
Minor storm20%15%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

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