Viewing archive of Wednesday, 27 October 1999

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1999 Oct 27 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 300 Issued at 2200Z on 27 OCT 1999

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. FOUR M-CLASS EVENTS OCCURRED. THEY WERE AN M3/NO OPTICAL WITH TYPE II AT 26/2125Z, AN M1/NO OPTICAL AT 0912Z, AN M1/SF WITH TYPE II AT 1337Z FROM REGION 8737 (S13W89), AND FINALLY, AN M1/NO OPTICAL AT 1541Z. LOOPS AND SURGING ARE OCCURRING ON THE SOUTHWEST LIMB WITH THE DEPARTURE OF REGION 8737. IT IS LIKELY THAT IMPRESSIVE REGION 8739 (S12W23) CONTRIBUTED TO THE M-LEVEL ACTIVITY. REGION 8739 HAS A LARGE AREA OF BRIGHT PLAGE, AND SHOWS A DEGREE OF MAGNETIC COMPLEXITY. ONE OTHER EVENT OF INTEREST WAS A C5/ NO OPTICAL, WITH TYPE II AT 0430Z. NEWLY NUMBERED REGION 8746 (S15E28) EMERGED AS A SIMPLE BIPOLE.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MODERATE TO HIGH. WATCH REGIONS 8739 AND NOW-DEPARTING 8737 FOR CONTINUED M-CLASS ACTIVITY. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 26/2100Z TO 27/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO ACTIVE. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT ATTAINED HIGH LEVELS NEAR MIDDAY.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY UNSETTLED TO MILDLY ACTIVE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. A COMBINATION OF HIGH-SPEED SOLAR WIND AND ENHANCED SOUTHWARD IMF SHOULD CAUSE OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF ACTIVE TO MINOR STORM LEVELS, ESPECIALLY DURING LOCAL NIGHTTIMES.
III. Event Probabilities 28 OCT to 30 OCT
Class M60%60%60%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       27 OCT 197
  Predicted   28 OCT-30 OCT  200/205/205
  90 Day Mean        27 OCT 158
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 26 OCT  006/009
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 27 OCT  015/015
PREDICTED AFR/AP 28 OCT-30 OCT  015/015-015/020-015/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 OCT to 30 OCT
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%30%30%
Minor storm20%20%20%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active40%40%40%
Minor storm25%25%25%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

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