Viewing archive of Wednesday, 27 October 1999
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1999 Oct 27 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 300 Issued at 2200Z on 27 OCT 1999IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. FOUR M-CLASS EVENTS
OCCURRED. THEY WERE AN M3/NO OPTICAL WITH TYPE II AT 26/2125Z, AN
M1/NO OPTICAL AT 0912Z, AN M1/SF WITH TYPE II AT 1337Z FROM REGION
8737 (S13W89), AND FINALLY, AN M1/NO OPTICAL AT 1541Z. LOOPS AND
SURGING ARE OCCURRING ON THE SOUTHWEST LIMB WITH THE DEPARTURE OF
REGION 8737. IT IS LIKELY THAT IMPRESSIVE REGION 8739 (S12W23)
CONTRIBUTED TO THE M-LEVEL ACTIVITY. REGION 8739 HAS A LARGE AREA OF
BRIGHT PLAGE, AND SHOWS A DEGREE OF MAGNETIC COMPLEXITY. ONE OTHER
EVENT OF INTEREST WAS A C5/ NO OPTICAL, WITH TYPE II AT 0430Z. NEWLY
NUMBERED REGION 8746 (S15E28) EMERGED AS A SIMPLE BIPOLE.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
MODERATE TO HIGH. WATCH REGIONS 8739 AND NOW-DEPARTING 8737 FOR
CONTINUED M-CLASS ACTIVITY.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO ACTIVE. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV
ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT ATTAINED HIGH LEVELS NEAR
MIDDAY.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY UNSETTLED TO MILDLY ACTIVE THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD. A COMBINATION OF HIGH-SPEED SOLAR WIND AND ENHANCED
SOUTHWARD IMF SHOULD CAUSE OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF ACTIVE TO MINOR
STORM LEVELS, ESPECIALLY DURING LOCAL NIGHTTIMES.
III. Event Probabilities 28 OCT to 30 OCT
| Class M | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 27 OCT 197 Predicted 28 OCT-30 OCT 200/205/205 90 Day Mean 27 OCT 158
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 26 OCT 006/009 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 27 OCT 015/015 PREDICTED AFR/AP 28 OCT-30 OCT 015/015-015/020-015/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 OCT to 30 OCT
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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