Viewing archive of Monday, 24 May 1999
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1999 May 24 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 144 Issued at 2200Z on 24 MAY 1999IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. THE PERIOD WAS CHARACTERIZED BY
A NUMBER OF SMALL C-CLASS X-RAY FLARES. THE LARGEST WAS A C3.3 FROM
NEWLY ASSIGNED REGION 8552 (N20E68). REPEATING THE TREND OF
YESTERDAY, REGIONS 8550 (S14E17), 8551 (N32E25) AND 8552 WERE THE
MOST ACTIVE. REGION 8550 CONTINUES TO DISPLAY A COMPLICATED
INVERSION LINE WITH A POSSIBLE MAGNETIC DELTA CONFIGURATION.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
LOW WITH A CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED M-CLASS X-RAY EVENT.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD RANGED FROM QUIET TO UNSETTLED WITH ONE 3 HOUR
PERIOD OF ACTIVE CONDITIONS.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
III. Event Probabilities 25 MAY to 27 MAY
| Class M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 24 MAY 137 Predicted 25 MAY-27 MAY 140/145/145 90 Day Mean 24 MAY 128
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 23 MAY 008/010 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 24 MAY 008/012 PREDICTED AFR/AP 25 MAY-27 MAY 008/012-008/012-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 MAY to 27 MAY
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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