Viewing archive of Saturday, 15 May 1999

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1999 May 15 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 135 Issued at 2200Z on 15 MAY 1999

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW, ONLY SMALL FLARES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. TWO NEW REGIONS WERE NUMBERED, REGION 8546 (S33W45) AND 8547 (N22W15). REGION 8547 IS EMERGING JUST EAST OF REGION 8541 (N21W26). GROWTH HAS BEEN REPORTED IN REGION 8544 (S21E48)
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY LOW TO LOW. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 14/2100Z TO 15/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN GENERALLY QUIET.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE UNSETTLED WITH ACTIVE PERIODS LIKELY ON 17 MAY AS A RESULT OF A FAVORABLY POSITIONED CORONAL HOLE.
III. Event Probabilities 16 MAY to 18 MAY
Class M20%20%20%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       15 MAY 144
  Predicted   16 MAY-18 MAY  140/135/135
  90 Day Mean        15 MAY 130
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 14 MAY  007/009
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 15 MAY  007/008
PREDICTED AFR/AP 16 MAY-18 MAY  005/008-010/015-008/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 MAY to 18 MAY
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%25%15%
Minor storm15%20%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%25%25%
Minor storm15%20%15%
Major-severe storm05%10%05%

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