Viewing archive of Friday, 14 May 1999
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1999 May 14 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 134 Issued at 2200Z on 14 MAY 1999IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. THERE WERE TWO SMALL OPTICALLY
UNCORRELATED C-CLASS X-RAY FLARES EARLY IN THE PERIOD. LASCO/EIT
IMAGES INDICATED A CME BEHIND THE NE LIMB AT APPROX 14/0400Z, AND
THE DISAPPEARANCE OF A 20 DEGREE LONG FILAMENT (S35E60) AT 14/0600Z.
REGIONS 8544 (S20E60) AND 8545 (N37E72) WERE NUMBERED TODAY.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LOW TO LOW.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED. THE EFFECTS OF A RECURRENT
CORONAL HOLE ARE EXPECTED BY THE LAST DAY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
III. Event Probabilities 15 MAY to 17 MAY
| Class M | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 MAY 144 Predicted 15 MAY-17 MAY 140/140/135 90 Day Mean 14 MAY 131
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 13 MAY 017/024 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 14 MAY ???/??? PREDICTED AFR/AP 15 MAY-17 MAY 005/008-005/008-010/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 MAY to 17 MAY
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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