Viewing archive of Thursday, 6 May 1999

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1999 May 06 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 126 Issued at 2200Z on 06 MAY 1999

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. ONLY TWO C-CLASS X-RAY EVENTS OCCURRED DURING THE PERIOD. THE STRONGEST BEING AN OPTICALLY UNCORRELATED C3 AT 06/0135UT. REGION 8534 (S18E59) PRODUCED A C2/SF AT 06/1048UT. OVERALL THE REGIONS WERE MOSTLY STABLE AND PRODUCED VERY LITTLE ACTIVITY. TWO NEW REGIONS WERE NUMBERED: 8535 (N20E56) AND 8536 (S24E51).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BE LOW. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 05/2100Z TO 06/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS MOSTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED WITH A SINGLE ACTIVE PERIOD OCCURRING AT 06/0900-1200UT. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRONS AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WERE AT MODERATE TO HIGH LEVELS FOR THE PERIOD. THE GREATER THAN 10 MEV PROTONS AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT STARTED THE PERIOD AT HIGH LEVELS UNTIL 06/0550UT, WHEN THEY DROPPED BELOW THE EVENT LEVEL THRESHOLD.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
III. Event Probabilities 07 MAY to 09 MAY
Class M20%20%20%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       06 MAY 147
  Predicted   07 MAY-09 MAY  145/145/140
  90 Day Mean        06 MAY 130
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 05 MAY  006/007
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 06 MAY  015/015
PREDICTED AFR/AP 07 MAY-09 MAY  015/015-010/012-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 MAY to 09 MAY
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%25%25%
Minor storm20%15%15%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active40%30%30%
Minor storm25%20%20%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

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