Viewing archive of Thursday, 6 May 1999
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1999 May 06 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 126 Issued at 2200Z on 06 MAY 1999IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. ONLY TWO C-CLASS X-RAY EVENTS
OCCURRED DURING THE PERIOD. THE STRONGEST BEING AN OPTICALLY
UNCORRELATED C3 AT 06/0135UT. REGION 8534 (S18E59) PRODUCED A C2/SF
AT 06/1048UT. OVERALL THE REGIONS WERE MOSTLY STABLE AND PRODUCED
VERY LITTLE ACTIVITY. TWO NEW REGIONS WERE NUMBERED: 8535 (N20E56)
AND 8536 (S24E51).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TO BE LOW.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS MOSTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED WITH A SINGLE
ACTIVE PERIOD OCCURRING AT 06/0900-1200UT. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV
ELECTRONS AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WERE AT MODERATE TO HIGH LEVELS
FOR THE PERIOD. THE GREATER THAN 10 MEV PROTONS AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS
ORBIT STARTED THE PERIOD AT HIGH LEVELS UNTIL 06/0550UT, WHEN THEY
DROPPED BELOW THE EVENT LEVEL THRESHOLD.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
III. Event Probabilities 07 MAY to 09 MAY
| Class M | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 MAY 147 Predicted 07 MAY-09 MAY 145/145/140 90 Day Mean 06 MAY 130
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 05 MAY 006/007 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 06 MAY 015/015 PREDICTED AFR/AP 07 MAY-09 MAY 015/015-010/012-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 MAY to 09 MAY
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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